March Kicks Off Our Spring Campaign- Donate Now to Support Forecasting
Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Weather Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Class List UAC Class List Online Classes Resources and Tutorials Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Sunday morning, January 24, 2021
Today, the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep, mid and upper elevation slopes and HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY, especially in terrain facing the north half of the compass. Remember- our recent storm stacked up on a snowpack that resembles a house of cards and you don't need to be on steep slopes in order to trigger avalanches, you just need connected to them. Avoid being on, near, or underneath steep terrain.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE at lower elevations where less storm snow piled up. And while human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE, they'll be smaller, more manageable, and not as widespread.
Here's your exit strategy for safer riding and avalanche avoidance... the Uinta mountains have plenty of low angle, rolly-polly terrain options (slopes less than 30 degrees in steepness). Think, big open meadows with no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
Under mostly cloudy skies, light snow falls as a weak trailing system delivers the last gasp of ultra-light, chin tickling snow to the range. Overnight low temperatures bottomed out in the single digits and low teens and winds are light and southerly, blowing just 10-15 mph along the high peaks. The weekend storm winds down and snow totals on the North Slope through the Upper Mirror Lake Highway clock in with a respectable 10" of medium density snow with about 1" of H2O. But... the south half of the range got clobbered, registering nearly 20" of snow and just over 1.75 H20. In either case, the storm was a much needed thick coat of white paint and average snow depths now hover just over 3'.
Forecast-
A few snow showers linger across the area this morning, but in general we are drying out and skies become partly cloudy as the day progresses. High temperatures climb into the mid 20's with overnight lows dipping into the low teens. West and southwest winds remain reasonable, blowing in 15-25 mph along the high ridges.
Futurecast-
A storm system diving to the south brings a slight chance of snow to our region Monday and Tuesday, but I think we're a little too far north to see significant accumulations. It looks like a progressive pattern shift keeps unsettled weather coming our way this week, with a couple inches of snow here and there. A more definitive, organized system sets up for next weekend.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Visibility was limited and we didn't hear of any breaking news, but Ted found a few wind drifts, sensitive to his additional weight. His trip report from the Whitney Basin area is found here.
Check here for additional trip reports and avalanche observations.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Not much has changed overnight. In fact, it's a fairly straight-forward formula today: take a weak, rotten, pre-existing snowpack... add some denser snow on top and... you get avalanches. The snowpack showed signs of instability before this storm and it will definitely continue on that track today.
Here's where things get tricky. The new snow will feel light and fluffy on top, but contains about an inch of water which is enough weight and stress to bring our dormant weak layers back to life. Remember- any slide triggered will break several feet deep, and a couple hundred feet wide, failing on one of the many persistent weak layers of faceted snow in the snowpack (see the photo below).
There are three things that will make the situation dangerous and deceiving:
  1. You may not see an abundance of in yer face clues like natural avalanches, but many steep slopes wait for a trigger like us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath.
  2. You won't have to be on steep terrain in order to trigger a slide. Just being near or under a steep slope is enough to to tip the balance. And previous tracks on the slope shouldn't be your barometer of slope stability. It could easily be the 3rd or 4th or 5th person that triggers an avalanche.
  3. Strong winds early last week created dense, hard drifts now hidden under the new snow. These stiff drifts are harder to trigger until you hit the right spot on a slope, which of course we can't see. The resulting avalanche is a thick, hard slab that easily ruins your day or perhaps your season.
Photo clearly showing persistent weak layers buried in the snowpack.
Video describing how you can trigger avalanches from below.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The new snow may avalanche by itself as a soft slab or just a dry loose avalanche without breaking on old layers of snow described above. It fell on a variety of surfaces that included wind scoured snow, crusted snow, wind deposited snow, and even a fragile layer of surface hoar (which is frost that forms on the snow surface - see the photo below). In some places the new snow may have a good bond while in many others it may not and that combo will produce small avalanches.
Photo of fragile surface hoar crystals on Thursday near Gold Hill.
Additional Information
This video is a 9 minute briefing of what to expect this weekend and how to travel.
I will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Monday January 25th.
Your observations are import, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >