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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Saturday morning, January 11, 2020
Heads up.... winds are changing the landscape this morning and ramping up the avalanche danger
In upper elevation terrain in the wind zone, tricky avalanche conditions exist on steep, wind drifted slopes, especially those with an easterly component to its aspect. You'll find a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger in terrain with these characteristics and human triggered avalanches are PROBABLE. Any avalanche triggered may break to weak snow near the ground, creating a larger avalanche than you might've bargained for.
More predictable and manageable in size, you'll find shallow drifts reactive to our additional weight in mid elevation terrain, where a MODERATE avalanche danger exists. Human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on steep, wind drifted leeward slopes.
Where to ride?
Wind sheltered, low and mid elevation terrain and big open meadows are the place to be where you'll find great riding and generally LOW avalanche danger. In terrain that looks and sound like this, human triggered avalanches are unlikely.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
Currently-
Another good looking system has loaded in the conveyer belt o' storms and it's tracking number says to expect a late morning delivery. In the mean time, skies are mostly cloudy and temperatures register in the teens and low 20's. Southerly winds began ramping up around midnight and currently blow in the 30's and 40's along the high ridges. It'll be rugged along the ridges, so head to wind sheltered slopes and you'll be rewarded with soft, deep, blower pow. The range has excellent early season coverage with total snow depths averaging just over 4' of settled snow.
Above, 24 hour data from Windy Peak (10,662') where you can clearly see yesterday's virtually non existent winds ramping to this mornings more robust winds. Uinta weather network info is found here. Simply click on the Western Uinta tab.
For today-
The next storm system brings snow to the eastern front later today. West and southwest winds blow in the 40's and 50's this morning, but should relax somewhat this afternoon. High temperatures don't vary much from where we're at this morning, then dip into the single digits overnight. Snowfall intensifies by about lunchtime, tapers off midday, then bumps up again this afternoon. 12"-18" of snow by Sunday afternoon looks like a solid bet.
Futurecast-
The weather briefing above says it all.
You know we've got a good series of storms headed our way when a Brain Mcinerney email shows up in your inbox.... how can you not be stoked!
Recent Avalanches
The slide in the image above illustrates the tricky nature of our current snowpack setup-
Amid a sea of tracks, a very experienced backcountry skier found a shallow weak spot in the snowpack on a steep, easterly facing slope yesterday. Tapping into his situational awareness and a big heads up from partners, the rider was able to get off the moving piece of snow
To view additional trip reports and recent avalanche activity, simply click here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Heads up... winds ramped up again overnight and I wouldn't be surprised if today's drifts break a bit deeper and wider than we might expect.
Winds are ramping up and they'll have no shortage of fresh snow to work with. I expect fresh drifts will easily react to our additional weight. Most prevalent on upper elevation leeward slopes, there might also be a fresh drift or two cross-loaded onto terrain features like chutes and gullies or even lower down-slope than we usually expect to see. In either case, your best bet for avoidance is to simply steer clear of any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Above, a short viddy illustrating a snow stability test at the crown of yesterdays skier triggered slide. Thanks Jason Boyer for sharing this critical information
Our recent round of storm snow brought little in the way of water weight and it feels like the snowpack is in a state of equilibrium and happy in its own skin. The good news is... our pack is looking encouragingly solid, especially where it's deep and nearing 4' of total settled snow. The bad news.... no matter how you cut it, we've got persistent weaknesses on all aspects of the compass, particularly in upper elevation terrain. And the bottom line is... anything persistent in our pack is tricky, can take long periods of time to heal, and snowpit stability tests often suggest false "green light" conditions. So that means, you can ride some slopes and be good to go, while others just wait for us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath. And here's the danger... once initiated, avalanches have a distinct possibility of breaking deeper and wider than you might expect.
Take home-
We are about to enter a stormy period and it'll test the myriad of snowpack structures, depths, and strength.
Additional Information
Thanks to the generous support of our Utah ski resorts and Ski Utah, we have discount lift tickets available. All proceeds support the UAC. Get your tickets HERE.
Get one of these cool t-shirts to support the UAC and other avalanche centers across the U.S. INFO
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires in 24 hours, but will be updated by 7:00 AM Sunday Jan. 12th.
This forecast is updated daily by 7:00 AM.
In the mean-time, if you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170
It'll be a minute or two before we're riding, but while you're waiting....
This is a great time of year to schedule one of our free avy awareness presentations.
You can email me directly [email protected]
The information in this forecast is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content.
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