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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Saturday, January 1, 2022
Please don't let fresh snow and sunny skies play into your decision making... AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ARE VERY DANGEROUS
The avalanche danger is HIGH near and above treeline. The avalanche danger below treeline is CONSIDERABLE. In either case, avalanches breaking to old snow near the ground will be catastrophic and unsurvivable.
Avoid being on or near any slope steeper than 30 degrees. Flat terrain underneath steep slopes is a dangerous place to be because avalanches can run long distances.
What to do and where to go... what's your exit strategy? The Uintas are blessed with many open meadows and rolling terrain that isn't steep enough to produce avalanches. Go rip deep trenches in a big open meadow today, or head to low angle, sunny slopes that didn't have old October snow for some fun turns in the sun. But remember- make sure to stay far away from any steep slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning
What
THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH FOR THE WARNING AREA AND TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
When
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
Where
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...AND THE MANTI-SKYLINE...THE FISH LAKE REGION…PAHVANTS…TUSHARS…AND THE CEDAR CITY AREA MOUNTAINS.
Impacts
HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS HAVE CREATED VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. BEING CAUGHT IN ANY AVALANCHE IS LIKELY TO BE UNSURVIVABLE. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.
Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
Under partly cloudy skies, very cold air settled into the region overnight and temperatures dropped faster than the Times Square New Years Ball at midnight! Most locations hover right around zero with ridgetops registering closer to -10 degrees. West and northwest winds blow 10-20 mph along the high ridges where windchill factors clock in at -30 degrees... ouch. Seven day storm totals nearing 70" produce riding and turning conditions that are all time... over-the-hood and over-the head.
FORECAST-
Look for partly cloudy skies with high temperatures barely cracking into the single digits. Northwest winds blow 15-25 mph along the high peaks. The bottom drops out tonight as overnight lows under clear skies crater to -10 degrees.
FUTURECAST-
Slightly warmer temperatures are on tap for Sunday and Monday, with another storm sliding into the region midweek.
Snowfall numbers over the last week are impressive and a major red flag. Here are the water numbers since December 23 from SNOTEL sites. As a general rule of thumb one inch of water equates to 12 inches of snow.
North Slope to Mirror Lake Hwy-
Chalk Creek - 5.4" H2O
Hayden Fork - 4.3" H2O
Trial Lake - 7.2" H2O
South half of the range-
Currant Creek - 5.7" H2O
Daniels-Strawberry - 5.5" H2O
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
A few avalanches have been sporadically observed and reported; however, clouds and snowfall have limited visibility during the last week and we don't really have a sense of the avalanche activity. What we know is that there have been avalanches and much of that evidence is covered over by recent snowfall.
Avalanches today can be hundreds of feet wide and 3-5 feet deep or more in wind-loaded locations.
Click HERE for a list of recent avalanches.
A list of all other observations is found HERE
Your input is vital and we're interested in what you're seeing. Please contribute to this great community resource and go here to fill out an observation.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow near the ground will produce hard and soft slab avalanches today. Dense snowfall and strong winds in December created a very stiff slab on top of this weak layer. The good news is that it is very supportable. The bad news is that:
  • Avalanches will break hundreds of feet wide.
  • It may not be the first person on a slope that triggers A LARGE, DANGEROUS avalanche, it may be the second, third, fourth, etc. who triggers it.
  • Seeing tracks on a slope DOES NOT mean it's safe.
  • Avalanches may be triggered from flat terrain underneath steep terrain.
  • Being underneath a steep slope, even if you're not on it, is not a safe place to be.
PWL exists on any slope that harbored old October snow, which grew and sugary during the November dry spell. Most low elevations slopes and south-facing slopes don't have this layer.
Slopes loaded by south winds are the exact ones where this weak layer exists. The addition of wind-drifted snow will make avalanches even larger, deeper, and more deadly.
See the slab of snow breaking on this weak layer in Mark's video below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Southerly winds cranked in the 50's and 60's for nearly a week before the New Years storm decided to make landfall. With no shortage of snow available to blow around, wind drifts formed nearly everywhere and at all elevations, not just along the leeward side of upper elevation ridges. Now here's the tricky part... both new and old drifts are hidden under a blanket of light, fluffy snow, making them hard to detect. So let's keep this simple. Today, we simply need to stay off of any steep, wind drifted slope, especially if the snow looks fat and rounded, or sounds hollow like a drum.
Additional Information
What a way to ring in the NEW YEAR!
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Sunday January 2nd.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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