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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, March 16, 2025
The overall danger rating is CONSIDERABLE today on the Manti Skyline.
A couple of snowmobile triggered avalanches reported from Friday demonstrate that conditions are not stable.
The safest bet is to continue to avoid slopes steeper than 30˚.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: A few more inches of snow stacked up over the last 24 hours. This brings totals up to 12 to 16 inches. I measured 15" of total new snow in 6 Mile Canyon on Saturday. Riding conditions were deep! Temperatures stayed cold on Saturday keeping the snow quality good. There was moderate speed wind now and then but overall, it was not drifting huge amounts of snow except right along the ridges. It's still a little breezy along the higher terrain.
Mountain Weather: It looks like we're going to see some clouds today. Perhaps they'll dissapate later on a bit with sun filtering through higher clouds. Temperatures will be much warmer reaching into the upper 30s or low 40s. Wind from the southwest will continue in the moderate speed range. It'll probably feel a little breezy along higher exposed terrain. Another storm moves through Tuesday that looks like it'll bring another decent shot of snow. However, it looks like there's going to be a lot of wind associated with this one and we could really get blasted by it.
Recent Avalanches
There was a late report of a snowmobile triggered avalanche on Saturday in Spring Creek near the kiting area at the Skyline Summit zone. Details are vague but they reported one person was carried. DETAILS HERE
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
OK, things are slowly changing with the old Persistent Weak Layers. I am finding that they are slowly gaining strength in many areas where the snowpack is becoming deeper. All these storms we've been having are helping to squash and force those old facets to bond and sinter forming stronger layers.
Now, this is not the case in all areas. You will no doubt still find shallow spots where the snow is hollow, sugary and weak. If you trench your sled, you'll see what I mean. You'll find the sugar below.
So, things are starting to turn the corner. (this should've happened back in January!!) However, there are still enough trouble spots out there to cause concern. Here are two examples:
  1. Areas with an overall shallow snowpack. Places where the snowpack is only in the 4 to 5 foot deep range have the weakest snow. This was demonstrated last week where a snowmobiler found a pocket in a shallow snowpack zone. DETAILS HERE
  2. Slopes that have previously avalanched earlier this season. Since they avalanched and took out snow from early on, they are shallower. Shallow areas = weak areas. I believe this was the case with a snowmobile triggered avalanche on Friday. DETAILS HERE Now here's a big problem. Unless you saw that a slope avalanched earlier this season, it's almost impossible to know for sure if it did or not by looking at it now. Slopes with a deeper snowpack are becoming more stable. Slopes that already avalanched are shallower and hold weaker snow. How can you tell them apart just from looking at them? There's no good way. I continue to hold my cards tight.
ATTENTION EPHRAIM CANYON RIDERS: Take a look at this AVALANCHE REPORT HERE and read the additional comments. This slope just west of Scotty's worries me.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.