Forecast - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Issued by Paige Pagnucco on
Wednesday morning, January 15, 2025

Today, there is MODERATE avalanche danger as it is still possible to trigger avalanches 2'-4' deep and up to 400' wide in thin, rocky zones or on slopes where avalanches have occurred earlier this season. Cautious route finding and conservative decision-making are essential, especially on steep slopes with buried, persistent weak layers, primarily facing the north half of the compass at mid to upper elevations. With significant warming today, expect solar slopes to shed loose wet sluffs with potentially deep debris piles.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

Learn how to read the forecast here

Special Announcements

Receive forecast region text message alerts about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings. Sign up HERE.

Weather and Snow

This morning, there are some high clouds, and temperatures at mountain weather stations are in the teens °F. Winds are blowing from the north at 10-15 mph with 35 mph gusts at 11,000'. The state sits at 92% of the median snow water equivalent for this time of year.

We found excellent powder snow yesterday in shaded terrain. Unfortunately, the sun tagged southerly slopes, so they’ll have a thin crust this morning. With a temperature bump today, you’ll find the best riding conditions in shaded, sheltered, north-facing terrain on slopes less than about 30°. It seems folks are stepping out into more significant terrain, but some slopes are still waiting for a trigger to lighten their load. If you’re testing the waters, follow safe travel protocols so your partner can help if things go sideways.

It will be a beautiful day in the mountains, with light winds from the north, sunny skies, and temperatures reaching almost 32°F at 10,000'. Expect similar conditions tomorrow. The next storm rolls in on Friday, bringing VERY COLD temperatures and a chance of snow for the weekend.

Recent Avalanches

A variety of avalanches were reported yesterday, including loose wet, PWL, and two very interesting glide avalanches in upper Broads Fork. One occurred Monday, while the other is likely a few days old.

Check out all observations and avalanches HERE.

A glide-related avalanche in Broads Fork likely occurred Monday. (pc: Mark White)

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The buried layer of weak, faceted snow is our main issue. Avalanches on this layer are more likely in thin, rocky terrain or where avalanches have already occurred this season. We dug around yesterday in upper Butler Basin near Sunday’s avalanche accident and found strengthening basal facets but, while stability is improving, many slopes are not yet stable. You have to hit the right spot on the right slope—or, really, the wrong spot on the wrong slope to trigger a large avalanche. Cautious route-finding will help navigate this problem.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The winds are becoming less of an issue and should be calm today in all but the highest, most exposed terrain. You may find sensitive slabs of wind-drifted snow near ridgelines and around exposed terrain features. Cross-loaded slopes and cornices are good indicators of wind loading. The biggest concern with wind-drifted snow avalanches is they can break down into the buried persistent weak layer, causing a much larger slide.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Due to daytime warming, wet snow avalanches may occur on solar aspects at all elevations. These avalanches could carry more snow than expected and create large debris piles. Move to a shadier aspect to find colder snow. Avoid traveling underneath steep slopes with saturated snow.

Additional Information

The avalanche danger scale is not linear, which means that the avalanche danger doesn't jump quickly between levels. It is a much more gradual change, and right now we are on the highest end of the MODERATE danger scale, which means that you may see travel advice that more closely matches what we would see during periods of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. The snowpack is solid MODERATE right now, but the human factor is always an unknown. Read more about the non-linear nature of the avalanche scale HERE.

Longtime avalanche forecaster Eric Trenbeath writes more about MODERATE danger with a buried persistent weak layer HERE.

General Announcements

CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures