Forecast - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Wednesday morning, February 5, 2025

Areas of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exist on steep wind drifted slopes of the mid and upper elevations. Human triggered avalanches 1-3' deep are likely; natural avalanches are possible. Some of these may step down to an old PWL near the ground. This danger is most pronounced on north through east facing slopes.

The heat wave has also led to unstable wet avalanche conditions on some slopes of the low and mid-elevations, particularly on the shady side of the compass.

Please keep ROOF-AVALANCHES on your radar.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Special Announcements

The Preliminary Report for Monday's Monte Cristo avalanche fatality is HERE. (photo below from yesterday)

Our condolences go out to the victim's friends and family and all those affected by this tragic accident. UAC staff visited the site yesterday and a full report is forthcoming.

Weather and Snow

Wind and more wind. Skies are mostly cloudy with a weak quick hitting "storm" on the way.

Mountain temperatures are a touch cooler - they're roughly 25-30°F up high, 35-40°F down low - but remain way above normal. Winds remain strong from the southwest.

Winds will stay moderate to strong from the southwest ahead of the afternoon "mini-front" where winds will veer to the west. Temps will drop to the upper teens to mid-20s. Today's storm is mostly sleight-of-hand and I only expect 2-4" of new snow. The good news is that it'll be a dramatic improvement over the current snow conditions: scary, unsupportable glop down low, warm and damp chalk up high. At best.

The Outlook: Wind and more wind ahead of Friday's storm. I'm optimistic that we may eke 6-12" out of this next system. If nothing else, temps will drop back down into the upper single digits to low teens.

Recent Avalanches

Deer Valley avalanche teams noted a significant natural avalanche along their perimeter - a 2-3' deep and 450' wide hard slab of wind drifted snow, failing on old faceted grains. This is a heavily wind loaded shoulder on a steep east facing slope at 9000'. (DV pics below). In my travels yesterday, I remotely triggered a cornice that then triggered a repeater pocket to the ground. It was only 1-2' deep and perhaps 40' wide along the west ridge of 10420' in upper BCC. (roughly 9600' north facing Lane's Leap area). Observers in upper Grizzly and West Porter of MCC reported wet loose natural activity in northerly terrain of the mid-elevations with debris piles big enough to bury a person.

Observations and Avalanches

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The winds remain merciless. Hard and soft slabs of wind drifted snow litter the steep terrain, although they are more stubborn and sluggish than late weekend into Monday. Many of these wind slabs, however, do rest upon a layer of weak recrystallized snow (last week's snow surface) and remain prone to triggering. It may be possible for any new wind slab to step down into weak faceted grains near the ground, particular in areas that avalanched previously this winter.

Cornices are becoming unruly along the ridgelines - remember to give these growing monsters a wide berth.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

There are two buried persistent weak layers (PWL) in the snowpack:

The upper layer formed during last week’s cold, clear weather and many wind slabs are failing at this layer.

The lower layer, near the ground, formed in December and has caused large avalanches, including two fatalities during the Holiday Avalanche Cycle. This layer is most likely to be triggered on steep, thin snowpack areas, rocky gullies, and repeater slopes (areas that have previously avalanched). Avalanches up to 1–4+ feet deep possible.

Read more about persistent weak layer avalanches HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The temperature graph is from the Mill D North weather station at 9000' and shows the "last, best" refreeze: early on February 2nd. Since then, the snow has become damp to wet and isothermal at many low and mid-elevation sites and desperately need a good refreeze to "lock up" the snow. Until then, wet avalanches will continue to occur in some steep terrain, particularly on the shady side of the compass. Some debris will pile up very deeply, especially above terrain traps or gullies.

* The current drop in temps is only window dressing. Beneath a superficial crust remains unsupportable wet snow.

Additional Information

Forecaster's Corner: My colleague Greg Gagne remarked a couple days ago, "I don’t think I’ve ever trusted the snowpack this season. I don’t like the current structure with the late Jan facets and the widespread repeater slopes."

Indeed. And with the record-setting warm temperatures the last few days, it just doesn't sit well. We don't sit easy in the avalanche office these days.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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