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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Monday morning, March 27, 2023
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger spans the steep wind drifted terrain of the mid and upper elevations. Human triggered avalanches will be likely, particularly on steep north to east to south facing slopes. Out of the wind, sluffing can be expected in the steepest terrain.
Heavy snowfall and strong winds over the past few days have created a layered and conditionally unstable snowpack. Caution is essential today on all aspects and elevations.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We are in the process of finalizing a report about the March 9th avalanche fatality in the Uintas. Thank you for your patience, and we will publish the final report in coming days.
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Weather and Snow
Would you believe me if I told you it was still snowing?
The Cottonwoods and Park City areas picked up 3-5" of cold smoke overnight, with mid-LCC reporting 12" overnight. We're now pushing storm totals to 40-60" (4.0"-4.50" SWE) since mid-week.
Mountain temperatures are in the single digits but winds are currently playing the spoiler. 11,000' winds have averaged 35-45mph with gusts to 60mph the last few hours. Even many mid-elevation anemometers are blowing 20-25mph with gusts to 40mph.
We should be seeing "peak" snowfall and winds this morning. We'll start to dry out (if only for a day or two) and possibly see a touch of blue by afternoon. Winds will lose steam and average 15mph along the 10k ridgelines.
Tuesday will be a bit of a break ahead of the next prolonged storm system that will bring at-times heavy snowfall Wednesday afternoon through Friday. 1-2' can be expected. The next storm is forecast for late weekend.
Off the charts at Snowbird. Almost 200% of "average". NRCS page
Recent Avalanches
Skiers triggered a few shallow soft slabs in the new snow in Neffs and on Kessler Peak yesterday. These were up to a foot deep and 50' wide. One skier was briefly caught and carried in the west couloir of Kessler Peak. Just up canyon, a likely natural cornice-fall triggered a fresh soft slab on the steep Silver Fork headwall 2' deep and 150' wide.
Avalanche control work along the southern end of the Park City ridgeline pulled out a 2-4' deep avalanche on a lightly-trafficked and heavily wind loaded northeast facing slope at 9900'.
***The Outlier - on Saturday, a snowmobile remotely triggered a significant avalanche just south of the Ant Knolls in upper Snake Creek (above Heber/Midway). (pics 1, 2) This avalanche ripped out 2' deep and 700' wide on a steep easterly facing slope at 9400', failing on a thin layer of surface facets, and buried by the mid-week storm(s). It left large debris piles and barely overran the groomed Cummings Parkway track below. What is troubling is that this was the only avalanche I noted in the vicinity; that I experienced no cracking or collapsing, and snow tests did not necessarily send a bunch of red flags. How should this affect terrain choices for today?
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
New and old soft slabs 1-2'+ deep of wind drifted snow can be triggered in steep terrain today, particularly on steep north to east to south facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations. Long time and trusted backcountry observer Andy Paradis well described the situation in Lambs canyon yesterday, "Today's snow plus multiple different loading directions created sort of a complex snowpack that is not visually obvious." It'll be key to avoid recently wind drifted slopes today.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It just keeps snowing. High snowfall rates this morning will lead to very sensitive loose dry and soft slab avalanches in the steepest terrain this morning. Natural loose sluffs are reported as of 6am.
Loose snow and soft slab avalanches in the storm snow can (and will) be triggered in steep terrain of all elevations today and honestly, the snowpack is more rich, complex, and interesting than I want it to be right now.
Avalanches may fail within the new snow or at the new snow/old snow interface (2-4' down) as we saw near the Ant Knolls. It has also been reported that some new snow avalanches have then stepped down to this older interface from last week.
I plan to stick to low angle slopes until the snowpack stabilizes. If you're seeking steeper terrain, choose terrain that won't kill you if you've made a mistake.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.