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Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Tuesday morning, January 11, 2022
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on mid and upper elevation aspects facing west to north and east where it is possible to trigger a large and dangerous avalanche that may break down 3-10' deep and up to hundreds of feet wide.
Although all other aspects have a LOW danger, watch for small wet-loose avalanches in steep southerly-facing terrain.
Travel Advice: Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making skills are still required today.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
This morning, skies are clear and temperatures are in the low to mid-20s F. Temperatures are inverted, with some low elevation trailheads in the low teens. The southwesterly winds at all elevations are light, averaging less than 10 mph with the occasional gust to 15 mph.
Today, skies will be sunny and temperatures will climb into the low and mid-30s at mid and upper elevations. Winds will pick up and transition more westerly averaging speeds of 5-15 mph at most elevations, with the occasional gust between 40-45 mph at the mid and upper elevation ridgelines.
The 3-4" of new snow from overnight Friday remains soft on wind and sun-sheltered slopes, but the past few days of sunshine crusted steep southerly-facing slopes and there is some wind damage along exposed ridgelines.
Hopefully, you enjoy the sunshine - we are going to see a lot of it for a while.
Recent Avalanches
No backcountry avalanches were reported Monday, but observations of large avalanches from this past weekend continue to roll in. Control work at some Cottonwood resorts continue to produce avalanches 6-8' deep that fail in faceted snow down near the ground.
Photo of large crown seen on the north-facing aspect of the Pfeifferhorn from an avalanche failing on the facets likely occurred this past avalanche cycle between the 6th-7th. (Photo: APW)
Check out all the recent avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There is a persistent weak layer (PWL) of old faceted snow near the ground with 3-10' of snow on top of it. This PWL exists on mid and upper elevation slopes facing west through north and east. It does not exist on south-facing slopes as any early season snow melted away and December snowfall landed on bare ground. This PWL has been fracturing and producing large, dangerous avalanches over the past few weeks.
These avalanches are currently tricky because they don't always offer immediate signs of instability and it's easy to be lured onto slopes with other tracks, particularly when snow depths and snow tests might be pointing in the direction of "stable".
The PWL is slowly gaining strength and adjusting to the dense, deep slab on top. Although the likelihood that a human could trigger an avalanche that fails in the PWL continues to decrease, the consequences of a deep and deadly avalanche remain high. This remains particularly possible in areas that the slab atop the facets is thinner, such as steep rocky terrain where the overall snowpack is thinner or on an old repeater slope that still has facets at the ground. While we are trending in the right direction, we are not out of the woods yet, and I would continue to avoid traveling on or below steep west through north through east facing slopes.
Additional Information
On Sunday, Trent walked you through the decision-making process of determining whether the PWL problem is Moderate or Considerable based upon the Avalanche Danger Scale (shown below). I encourage you to re-read that forecast as it provides some insight into the decision-making process of assigning a danger rating.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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