The Christmas Eve Rain Crust (CERC) is creating a tricky, low-probability but high-consequence scenario. Crust thickness is a critical variable. On most mid-elevation slopes, the crust is several inches thick, effectively 'protecting' the weak layer and making triggering unlikely.

We are most concerned with slopes above 9500 feet where less rain fell, and the crust is thinner. The challenge is that we don't have a clear pattern of where those places are. Recent avalanche activity provides clues, but as we enter a storm period, uncertainty surrounding the crust/facet combination remains high. It is a good idea to build in a margin and avoid terrain with characteristics similar to the Sunset Peak avalanche: steep, rocky, wind-exposed.

Looking at the bed surface of the Sunset Peak avalanche is a sober reminder of the consequences of being caught in this type of avalanche right now; the relatively thin veil of snow masks the rock grinder you'd be dragged through.

On December 30th, Dave Kelly visited the Sunset Peak avalanche. His observations is a bullseye for understanding this setup here.

By late day, accumulating snow and moderate SW wind will build shallow soft slabs up to 10 inches thick near exposed ridges. While these surface avalanches will likely be small, they could step down into the deeper, more dangerous hard slab problem (1-3' deep) on upper elevation W-N-E slopes.

'Radiation Recrystallization' (near-surface facets) formed on upper elevation SE aspects over the last few days. While the warm daytime temperatures likely destroyed this layer in most locations, it may survive in isolated pockets and create more sensitive slabs here.