Forecast - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Issued by Brooke Maushund on
Sunday morning, January 4, 2026

The avalanche danger is MODERATE at upper and on W-N-SE facing slopes at mid-elevations above 9500' where the wind continues to drift new snow into slabs 1-3' deep. These avalanches have the potential to run far and fast on the slick crust below. Smaller wind slabs may prove effective triggers for deeper, destructive slides on a persistent weak layer more than 100 feet wide. Steep, rocky, wind-exposed northerly slopes are most suspect. If the storm comes in earlier than forecast this afternoon, expect danger to rise to CONSIDERABLE by the end of the day.

Remember: If you are ducking ropes or stepping out of bounds at a ski area, you are stepping into potentially dangerous avalanche conditions. It’s worth noting that Utah leads the nation in avalanche fatalities where riders have exited the ski area boundaries and never made it home.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Special Announcements

Be mindful of avalanche workers - IF YOU TRIGGER an avalanche near a ski area, please report it to the ski patrol dispatch or Alta Central (801-742-2033). Rescue personnel don’t want to be subjected to dangerous conditions if the scene is clear. More on this in Backcountry Emergency Protocols

Weather and Snow

Yesterday, sustained moderate to strong winds out of the SW easily transported the close to 15" of new snow that fell in days prior. The wind kept snow surfaces cool and readily available for transport overnight into the morning.

Today, a weather system moves in on SW flow later this afternoon. Temps remain just below freezing, along with assistance from the SW winds that will increase to moderate to strong today. The moisture arrives later this afternoon, with snow lines starting around 8k' before dropping closer to 6.7k' overnight. "Timing is everything," I think is how the saying goes, but it's notoriously hard to forecast. The crystal ball this morning is showing things play out as so, with less certainty the farther out:

Upper LCC: 2-5 inches snow // 0.2-0.4 inches H2O by 5pm —— 13-18 inches snow // 1.4-1.8 inches H2O by 8am Monday
Upper BCC: 1-3 inches snow // 0.1-0.3 inches H2O by 5pm —— 11-15 inches snow // 1-1.5 inches H2O by 8am
PC Ridgeline: 0-2 inches snow // 0-0.2" inches H20 by 5pm —— 7-11 inches snow // 0.7-1.1 inches H2O by 8am

Late tonight into tomorrow, the bulk of the moisture arrives. Snowfall will linger Monday afternoon until tapering into the evening. Winter seems to be arriving, as more colder systems inch towards us later next week. Cross your fingers, and keep checking the often more hopeful model, the GFS—or as we sometimes call it: the Great Friend of Skiers.

Recent Avalanches

Brighton accident - Based upon the investigation of Brighton Ski Patrol, it appears that two riders were caught and carried in a large avalanche yesterday in the Hidden Canyon area of the Brighton backcountry. Most likely, the party exited the ski area boundary and entered the dangerous terrain, triggering the 2-4' deep and 200' wide avalanche, and were pummeled for 500' down the slope. It appears that one was partially buried and the other fully buried. They were very lucky. This was the third significant avalanche in the Brighton backcountry of Hidden Canyon in the past week.

Utah leads the nation in fatalities of skiers and riders who have left ski area boundaries and never made it home. UAC Forecaster Drew Hardesty broke down Utah accident data in an article for The Avalanche Review in 2016 if you want to dig in. Note that these numbers were before the backcountry traffic uptick during COVID.

White Pine - Blake Z. found a 2' deep, more than 80' wide natural wind slab on a N-facing slope near 9900' in the White Pine drainage that broke at the top of a roll over. Read his full ob HERE, and find an image of the slide below.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Wind loading kept ski areas and backcountry travelers on their toes yesterday, with a natural wind slab running in steep east-facing terrain near 11,000' in upper LCC and another well off ridgeline in White Pine at 9900' (see photo below). While these will be most likely on the leeward sides of ridges, the White Pine slide is a bullseye example of slab development well below ridgeline on convex rollovers and on exposed mid-slope catchment areas like gullies.

The most recent storm pulse laid down upwards of 15" of new snow in favored areas. Winds out of the SW drifted this snow into fresh slabs at upper and exposed mid-elevations that face W-N-SE yesterday, and will continue to do so with sustained loading speeds that will ramp up again throughout today. In some areas, you'll be able to find pockets of wind-drifted snow close to 3 feet deep that will be reactive to your body weight, with the potential to run fast and far on the slick CERC. Drifts, dunes, pillow are all signs the wind has been at work—be wary of developing cornices along ridges. Cracking along the surface is a sign you've likely found a slab.

There remains a possibility for one of these shallower slides to step down to a more destructive slab avalanche running on weak snow near the ground—more info on that below.

White Pine natural wind slab photo by Blake Z. running ~2' deep.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The supportability of the Christmas Eve Rain Crust (CERC) is what determines a rider’s ability to trigger a slide on the PWL right now. The problem is, its spatial variability is concerning, with some areas hosting crusts more than 10cm thick, and others have friable, thin crusts that are weakening.

In most areas, it's unlikely that you can trigger a slab avalanche on the persistent weak layer. However, if you head to higher, wind-exposed, W-N-E terrain, it's possible to trigger a large, destructive, and potentially fatal avalanche. This is perfectly demonstrated by the three separate slab avalanches triggered on the PWL in Hidden Canyon within the past week, the last of which resulted in a partial and full burial. Here's the second, and the first.

This afternoon into this evening, we begin to add more load on top of the CERC. While the bulk of the storm will come in late tonight into tomorrow, I'm taking the day to shift my mindset and take a step back. This next series of storms through next week is forecast to add a considerable load on top of the CERC. Our uncertainty will rise with how the crust will support this additional weight as the load increases.

Yesterday, Drew Hardesty went to investigate a second avalanche in Hidden Canyon when he and Malia Bowman of Brighton Snow Safety happened upon a third slide with two burials. Her write up is telling of just what can happen in areas where the CERC is weak and unsupportable.

Additional Information

We're all excited about the fresh new snow and improved riding conditions, especially with the slow start to the season. Everyone (us included) is antsy to get some fresh turns. Longtime local professionals noted some less-than-safe travel practices in the backcountry yesterday. We have a responsibility to one another to cross slopes one at a time, be aware of who’s above and below us, and to pick uptracks with the least exposure. We tell you these things not to wag fingers, but to have you come home to and with all of your friends and family tonight. It’s what we all want for each other.

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures