Forecast - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly on
Tuesday morning, January 14, 2025

The avalanche danger is MODERATE at mid and upper elevations and LOW in the lowest elevation terrain. It will be possible for humans to trigger avalanches 2'-4' deep and up to 400' wide in thin rocky zones or in areas where avalanches have already occurred this season.

With a buried Persistent Weak Layer as the primary avalanche problem, cautious route finding and conservative decision making are essential.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures are in the teens °F. Winds are blowing lightly from the southeast at the lower ridgelines and from the northwest in the mid 20's gusting to the 30's MPH at the highest ridgelines. It is COLD again this morning and the wind chill in many locations is well below 0 °F. 24-hour snowfall numbers added another 1" of snow and .10" of water.

For today, look for partly sunny skies. Temperatures will be between 22-26 °F with light winds from the north 5 gusting to 10 MPH at the lower ridgelines and 25 gusting to 35 MPH at the highest ridgelines.

You can find soft surface snow on all aspects to make turns, which makes it easy to stay away from the steeper aspects that are holding weaker faceted snow near the ground. It was cold enough yesterday to prevent any wet loose activity in the Provo Region, but any sun warmed slopes out of the wind could start to shed some of the new snow in wet loose piles this afternoon. There were some reports of a radiation recrystallization crust in Provo on east and east-southeast slopes in mid elevation terrain. This layer forms quickly and is often destroyed by sun and wind before it can cause problems.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday, there were no backcountry avalanches reported to the UAC from the Provo Region. Trent reported shallow dry loose avalanches from his field day in the northern Provo Region.

Check out all observations and avalanches HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The buried weak layer of faceted snow (PWL) is still intact on many aspects facing northwest-north-east. Locations where you are more likely to trigger an avalanche failing into these dry loose facets are thin rocky terrain, and on slopes that have already avalanched this season (repeaters).

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

In the Provo Area Mountains, there is new snow available for transport. With shifting winds throughout the storm and increased wind speeds overnight and this morning expect to see shallow drifts on all aspects in upper and mid elevation terrain. Look for and avoid pillowy rounded areas of new snow and steep wind loaded slopes underneath newly formed cornices. Fresh wind drifts can also activate the buried persistent weak layer on slopes still harboring weak dry snow near the ground.

Additional Information

The avalanche danger scale is not linear, which means that the avalanche danger doesn't jump quickly between levels. It is a much more gradual change, and right now we are on the highest end of the MODERATE danger scale, which means that you may see travel advice that more closely matches what we would see during periods of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. The snowpack is solid MODERATE right now, but the human factor is always an unknown. Read more about the non-linear nature of the avalanche scale HERE.

Longtime avalanche forecaster Eric Trenbeath writes more about MODERATE danger with a buried persistent weak layer HERE.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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