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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees for
Thursday, April 11, 2019
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind drifted mid and upper elevation slopes, where human triggered slides likely today. The danger could rise from LOW to CONSIDERABLE for wet loose sluffs if the clouds thin or the sun comes out. Avoid avalanche runout zones even at the low elevations.
Heading into the Provo backcountry? Seek wind sheltered slopes early in the day while the snow is cold and the avalanche danger is LOW to MODERATE. It could be a dynamic day, but with careful snowpack evaluation and constant assessment for heating, there are lots of safer options for amazing touring and riding today.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Daily early morning avalanche forecasts will end Sunday, April 14. We will issue early morning forecasts on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of Easter weekend (April 19-20). Throughout the rest of April, we will issue intermittent updates with any snowfall and we will continue posting observations.
Our final podcast for the season has been released HERE. Low Danger - A Story in 5 Parts. Thanks much to our producer Benjamin Bombard and our sponsors Arva, Prival, and 2nd Tracks Sports.
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Weather and Snow
As best I can tell from remote weather stations, about 6 inches of snow fell at the mid elevations in the Provo area mountains, and there could easily be double that at the upper elevations, especially in American Fork and Snake Creek. Temperatures have cooled into themid to low twenties. Overnight, the northwesterly winds picked up, averaging at times 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph at the mid elevations. To the north, the highest peaks averaged 35 to 60 mph, with gusts in the 60s to 70s at 11,000’. Storm water, a combination of rain and snow, is .5 to .9" of water.
Today: Under partly cloudy skies, convective showers could produce another trace to 2” of snow. This morning’s brisk northwesterly winds should slowly decrease, though averages of 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph will still occur at 10,000’ and the highest peaks could average 35 mph, with gusts in the 50s. Temperatures will warm to near freezing at 8,500’ and into the mid 20s at 10,000’.
Recent Avalanches
No new observations from the Provo area mountains. Below is information from areas to the north, and may be most pertinant for the north side of American Fork.
Little Cottonwood was the epicenter of the snow and the avalanche activity. The resorts reported ski and explosive triggered slides on all aspects and elevations, large enough to bury a person. In the upper elevation wind zone, a few even larger natural slides occurred. Highway control on south facing slopes released large slides running up to 2000’ vertical in both the morning and afternoon. In Big Cottonwood, explosives triggered 2 slides that gouged into wet snow and one wet slab avalanche.
Backcountry - numerous small skier triggered new snow slides and a few naturals, about 4 to 12" deep and 30 - 100' wide, breaking on a density inversion or in a wind effected area. The closest call was on Kessler Slabs, where the skier managed to stop and avoid the 1000' ride. A few collapses on wet snow were reported.
Cracking of a test slopes at 8,000'. AT photo.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
While the new snow instabilities from yesterday have mostly strengthened, the drifts of wind blown snow that formed overnight will take a bit longer to heal. While these 1 to 3 foot deep drifts will be most widespread at the highest elevations, drifts can also be found well off ridge lines, at the mid elevations and cross loaded around terrain features. They will be wider and deeper than yesterday’s new snow only slides. Signs of wind drifts include cracking of the snow and looking for and avoiding smooth, rounded pillows of snow.
There will be a whole new batch of cornices along the higher ridge lines, and they may break from a distance. Stay well back from corniced edges when traveling on ridge lines and avoid travel beneath them.
New snow - if there is brief, heavy snowfall where you are, the newest snow could become reactive again, and there could be some graupel pooling below cliffs to avoid.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today, I am very skeptical that thick cloud cover will hold everywhere. If the sun even thinks about coming out or the clouds thin...the surface snow will almost instantly heat, and wet loose avalanches and shallow wet slabs will become easy to trigger. Thinning of the clouds means the snow will heat on all aspects and elevations except steep, upper elevation northerly facing slopes. Direct sun will heat steep, sunny slopes.
Clues will be abundant if the snow heats - you will feel the hot April sun, the snow becomes sticky or damp, pinwheels or swarms of roller balls race downhill, you’re triggering small sluffs or the snow is falling off rocks and trees. Danger for wet sluffs can rise from LOW to CONSIDERABLE in minutes. Wet avalanche debris piles up instead of spreading out, and even small slides can deposit 4 feet of cement like debris. Get off steep slopes, head to low angle slopes and avoid travel beneath steep slopes and avalanche run out zones. Have a game plan for your exit out of the backcountry.
The old wet snow at the mid and lower elevations should have cooled, but any collapsing is a clue that it is still weak, and steep slopes should be avoided.
Wet debris is dangerous. Monday's natural slide off east facing Kessler. Nina Lorentzen photo.
Additional Information
Spring is here and it is time to adjust our travel. Learn what to watch for during spring avalanche conditions when the snow becomes wet.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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