Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Saturday morning, March 9, 2024

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all upper elevation steep slopes for fresh soft slabs of wind-drifted snow. On sunny slopes, the avalanche danger will quickly rise to MODERATE as the strong March sun heats the snow surface, eventually making it unstable. Don't overstay your welcome on steep sunlit slopes today.

Out of the wind and sun, we have generally safe avalanche conditions, and backcountry travelers should watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Remember that the mountains are a wild environment, and mountain travel is inherently dangerous.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Special Announcements

As we transition to a generally stable snowpack and many are starting to pursue bigger objectives, be sure to read Drew Hardesty's latest blog, "Is it REALLY Low Danger?"

Weather and Snow

Under clear skies, the mountain temperatures range from single digits in the valley bottoms to the mid-20s °F across the upper elevations. Winds are from the east-north-east, blowing 5-10 mph with gusts barely reaching 20 mph across most upper-elevation terrain. However, at 11,000' wind sites did show a bump in northeast winds overnight, with speeds averaging 20-30 mph for a couple of hours.

Today, we will see plenty of strong March sunshine. Temperatures will warm into the mid 30s to low 40s °F. The wind is forecast to change directions at some point today and blow from the south as a weak cold front is expected overnight. This cold front will bring some thin high clouds later this afternoon along with an increase in southerly wind. No new snow is expected. A stronger storm is slated for Tuesday.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday, many big lines were tested and ridden without avalanches being triggered. Most people found the new snow to sluff easily (dry-loose avalanche) in steep terrain. One group triggered a wind slab avalanche that was 12-14 inches deep, 45 feet wide, and ran 600 feet downhill, fanning out in the apron below. This was on a steep upper-elevation northeast-facing slope at 10,600' in elevation (see photo below).

Type

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Likelihood

Size

Description

Yesterday, I was around Mount Timpanogos for the day and noted lots of wind blowing and moving snow across the upper elevations in the Provo area. Unfortunately, the northeast winds did their damage in Provo. It looked scary up there. Check out the video I took at the north end of Timp. The wind only affected the upper elevation band. Across the mid-elevations, I did not see any active wind drifting.

Today, I would be looking for and avoiding fresh soft slabs of wind-blown snow. Human-triggered avalanches are possible. Cornices have grown large and I would give those a very wide margin of error.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

It's March. Strong sunshine and warming temperatures will heat the sunny slopes causing them to become unstable at some point today. The first signs of wet snow are usually roller balls cascading down the slopes. If enough warming continues, it will break the bonds between the grains, causing the damp/wet snow surface to become unstable and slide downhill as a wet-loose avalanche.

Do not overstay your welcome in steep sunlit terrain today. Plan your exits well and ensure you're not on or under avalanche paths during the day's heat.

Additional Information

The Provo area mountains have widely variable snow and avalanche conditions. The American Fork area and the Wasatch Back had some of the weakest and thinnest snow of northern Utah. Along the upper reaches of the Cascade ridgeline and Timpanogos, natural avalanches have run and repeated over and over on weak-faceted snow from early season and/or early December. Extra caution is recommended in steep alpine terrain in the Provo Area Mountains where you may see repeater avalanches in thinner snowpack areas that have previously avalanched. This is worth keeping in mind if you are traveling to the Provo Region from another place in the state that has a more stable snowpack.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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