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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Dave Kelly
Issued by Dave Kelly on
Monday morning, January 13, 2025
The avalanche danger is MODERATE at mid and upper elevations and LOW in the lowest elevation terrain.
MODERATE with a buried persistent weak layer is different than MODERATE with other avalanche types. It will be possible for humans to trigger avalanches 1'-3' deep and up to 200' wide in thin rocky zones or in areas where avalanches have already occurred this season (repeater avalanches).
Cautious route finding and conservative decision making are essential for enjoying this most recent snow.
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Weather and Snow
Under mostly clear skies, temperatures are in the low teens °F. Winds are blowing lightly from the north at most weather stations. Snow depths throughout the range vary from 40"-66".
For today, look for mostly clear skies to start the day with increasing clouds and the chance for light snow and maybe some riming this afternoon. Temperatures will be between 18-22 °F with light winds from the north 5 gusting to 10 MPH at the lower ridgelines and 15 gusting to 20 MPH at the highest ridgelines. Winds may increase throughout the day.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, there were no reports of avalanches from the Ogden backcountry. Ski area operations reported dry loose sloughing in the newest snow. Check out all recent avalanches and observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The buried weak layer of faceted snow (PWL) is still intact on many aspects. The similarities for these zones where you are likely to find the buried persistent weak layer (PWL) is that all these slopes will all have a thinner snowpack and could be places that have already avalanched this year (repeater). These repeater zones are places where I would use more caution.
Additional Information
The avalanche danger scale is not linear, which means that the avalanche danger doesn't jump quickly between levels. It is a much more gradual change, and right now we are on the highest end of the MODERATE danger scale, which means that you may see travel advice that more closely matches what we would see during periods of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. The snowpack is solid MODERATE right now, but the human factor is always an unknown. Read more about the non-linear nature of the avalanche scale HERE.
Longtime avalanche forecaster Eric Trenbeath writes more about MODERATE danger with a buried persistent weak layer HERE.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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