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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees for
Thursday, April 4, 2019
The avalanche danger is MODERATE for triggering wet snow avalanches on all slopes this morning. The danger may rise to CONSIDERABLE with afternoon heating, with deeper gouging wet loose sluffs and even wet slabs possible at all elevations. Avoid drainages and gullies, terrain such as Hells Canyon, where even a shallow slide will run far and result deep, cement like debris piles.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE for triggering a lingering wind drift on steep, upper elevation northerly facing slopes slopes.
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Weather and Snow
Yesterday’s storm totals came in at 5 to 10” of dense snow at the upper elevations in the Ogden area mountains, with the rain/snow line remaining at about 7,500’ throughout the storm. Water totals were impressive, with a combination of heavy snow and rain adding up to .8 to 1.5" of water. It will be typical spring conditions, with any “dry” snow only at the uppermost, northerly elevations with almost all other slopes will be crusted this morning before they rapidly heat once again.
Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures remained warm overnight, and are in the mid to upper 30s at all elevation except the high ridge lines. Mount Ogden has managed to cool into the upper 20s. The southwesterly winds are very light, almost all stations averaging 10 mph with gusts less than 15 mph. Mt Ogden is averaging 20 mph, with gusts in the low 20s.
It’s going to be a hot one today...highs today will be near 50 at 8,000’ and 40 on Mt Ogden. It will be a mix of sunny to partly cloudy, with high thin clouds in the mix. The southwesterly winds are forecast to remain light, though the highest peaks could gust into the upper 20s at times.
Recent Avalanches
There were no new observations from the Ogden area backcountry. Reports from the resorts yesterday were of wet snow sluffs, easily triggered with ski cuts, increasing in sensitivy with the afternoon heating. Mid elevations were noted as being more active in some terrain.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With a combination of thin clouds and very warm temperatures, shallow wet loose sluffs and slabs of new snow will again be easy to trigger on steep slopes of all almost aspects and elevation. These will average 4 to 8” deep, and run further and faster than expected on the slick ice crusts beneath. Entraining snow as they move downhill, even a shallow slide can stack up deep debris in terrain traps or against trees.
Look for clues - as soon as the crusts soften and the snow becomes damp, wet or soggy where you are or you can trigger small wet sluffs, it’s a sign of unstable wet snow. It’s time to move to low angle slopes and avoid terrain traps such as gullies and drainages.
At the mid to lower elevation, also be alert if snow snow is punchy, and you can break deeply into it, especially in shallow or rocky spots - deeper wet slab avalanches are possible. Again, avoid steep slopes. Snow conditions can change quickly with aspect and elevation.
Yes, this is from Little Cottonwood. BUT...it is a 17 second video showing how you can get 4 feet of debris from a 6 inch deep wet slide and it holds true for the Ogden area mountains. (Greg Gagne)
Avalanche Problem #2
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind Blown snow - If you are searching for drier snow on up the upper elevation, shady slopes, expect a few lingering wind drifts along the higher ridge lines that could still be triggered. Signs of wind drifts include cracking of the snow and looking for smooth, rounded drifts that may be denser than the snow around them. A long running slide triggered in dry snow will change into a wet snow slide as it moves down slope, making it harder to escape if you’re caught and having a much denser, harder debris pile.
Cornices will be more sensitive today with a new load and heating. Again, minimize your travel time below overhanging cornices. When traveling on ridge lines, stay well back from the edges of the cornices.
Persistent Weak Layer - A two-week old buried weak layer of facets and surface may still exist on protected mid and upper elevation northerly to easterly facing slopes. An inch of water weight might not be enough to reactivate these layers, but with loading from southwest winds on our suspect northwest through easterly slopes we could see increased sensitivity today. Use extra caution in this terrain, and take the time to dig down 2-3 feet, looking for a thin gray line or test results of full propagation.
Additional Information
If you don’t like crusts and mashed potatoes, no worries - more storms are on the way. The first small storm should produce several inches of snow Friday night/Saturday morning, with a colder, larger storm around next Wednesday. We all love looking at these U of U products. Upper graphs - Snowbasin. Lower graphs - Powder Mountain
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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