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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Tuesday morning, March 12, 2024
We start this morning at LOW danger. Remember, LOW Danger does not mean No Danger. It may be possible to trigger small avalanches in isolated terrain.
I don't think we'll see enough new snowfall (3-5") today to pose an problem, but if we see more snow and wind than expected, watch for increasing danger in the new snow in the steeper terrain on all aspects of the higher elevations. Continue to give the yawning cornices a wide berth.
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Weather and Snow
Skies are mostly cloudy with slowly warming temperatures ahead of another storm. Winds are backing (shifting counter-clockwise) to the west-southwest (blowing from that direction) at 15-20mph with gusts to 30. Mountain temps are in the mid to upper 20s.
The Big Picture: a storm arriving from the Pacific northwest will usher in another round of snow today, with higher snowfall rates expected by the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Temps will be in the mid-20s today, on their way to the low teens tomorrow. Winds should be light to moderate from the west. Snowfall should continue through tomorrow with 6-12" possible. I should say 2-16" because there is a fair bit of uncertainty with snow amounts with this system. Where there is not uncertainty is in the forecast strong winds from the east Thursday through Friday. As the storm closes off and moves south, cyclonic (counter-clockwise) winds along the north edge of the storm brings strong winds from the east. And nothing good comes from an east wind.
Current Conditions: Coverage is excellent with 40-60" of snow at the trailheads and 80-120" of settled snow in the high country. Most snow stakes are well above average (115-130%+). Riding conditions are, however, a bit rugged, with sun and wind damage across all but the most protected terrain. Hopefully by tomorrow, we'll have a new coat of paint for a nice refresh.
Recent Avalanches
No reports of avalanches from yesterday.
Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Our general Normal Caution wording reads as follows: This is not a specific avalanche problem. It is used by UAC forecasters most often when avalanche conditions are generally safe and there is no predominant avalanche problem. Any avalanche type is possible but the most common would be wind slab, loose wet, and loose dry avalanches and they would be expected to be small. Do not approach a Normal Caution avalanche problem as an “anything goes” situation. Continue to keep your guard up and look for any signs of snow instability. Evaluate snow and weather conditions as you travel.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.