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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Tuesday, December 12, 2023
Areas of MODERATE danger exist in steep terrain of the upper elevations.
On these westerly to northerly to easterly facing aspects, it will still be possible to trigger an avalanche 1-3' deep stepping into the old faceted snow from early season. Cracking and collapsing may or may not accompany unstable slopes.
A LOW avalanche danger exists on many southerly aspects and on all low elevation slopes.
***IF the winds start to blow from the east earlier than expected, watch for an elevated danger of soft slabs in steep wind drifted terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Skies are partly to mostly cloudy as a weak cut-off upper level low pressure system moves south through the area. Mountain temperatures are in the upper 20s. Winds are from the west southwest, blowing 5-10mph. Along the highest elevations, wind speeds are blowing 15mph with gusts to 20mph. Cloud cover should start to thin by the afternoon. Winds will shift and blow from the east tonight and tomorrow, with particularly strong speeds in and at the mouth of the canyons. Winds aloft may also be moderate to strong from the east in the Logan area mountains and along the Idaho border. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.
High pressure builds for the foreseeable future. The tea leaves hint at a pattern change just after the Solstice but we'll see.
In the meantime, backcountry travel is easy and supportable (for now), the weather is benign, and avalanche conditions are on the mend.
Steenburgh photo
Recent Avalanches
No reports of recent avalanches from the Ogden backcountry. Avalanche control work was spotty, but along the south end of the Ogden skyline, teams triggered a 2-4' deep hard slab on a facet/crust combination on an east-southeast facing slope at 9500'. While it was described as an outlier, another observation referred to this layering formed Dec 5th/6th.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Triggering an avalanche 1-3' deep down into our old PWL persistent weak layer of facets and crusts is becoming less likely in most terrain. Although snowpits continue to show a poor structure and a "lively" interface between the strong slab over the weak facets, cracking and collapsing have become much less common. I suspect that this layering will become dormant in the days ahead.
In isolated terrain, you might be able to trigger an avalanche on easterly/southeasterly aspects on a weak combination formed Dec 5/6th. It's highly recommended to pull out the shovel to gauge the structure and sensitivity of what's on the slope you want to ski or ride. Extended column tests are a good test for this. More INFO.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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