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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, April 5, 2021
It did not freeze again last night and soaring temperatures will cause the danger for loose wet and even wet slab avalanches to quickly rise to CONSIDERABLE on all sun-exposed slopes. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and punchy or sloppy unsupportable snow. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.
An isolated or MODERATE avalanche danger exists on very steep slopes above treeline that face NW-N-NE where stiff slabs overlying weak, faceted snow can still be found. Very warm temperatures may increase the likelihood of triggering an avalanche on this weak, faceted snow. Shallow snowpack areas with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche.
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Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road is melted down to the dirt up to the parking lot.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance is through grooming for the season.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 58" Wind SW 15-20 G30 Temp 40F
Overnight freezes and daytime high temps mean everything right now. Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals and temperatures at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
NWS Weather Forecast
Snowpack Discussion
Last night was our warmest night yet and the great melt-out continues. Expect punchy, unsupportable conditions this morning that will quickly become wet and sloppy. The snowpack is in a volatile state with melt-water running through it. Natural, wet slab avalanches running to the ground have occurred in both the La Sal and Abajo mountains. In addition to being dangerous, riding conditions just aren't very good. A solid freeze tonight should lock things back up and we will see a return to corn snow conditions for the remainder of the week. Go ride your bike today.
Weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground, especially at higher elevations on NW-E aspects. Warm temperatures and percolating water in the snowpack may make these layers more reactive to the weight of a skier or rider. Slopes with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche failing on this weak, faceted snow.
Recent Avalanches
Chris Benson spotted this wet slab avalanche from the air yesterday evening. Wet slabs have also been observed in the Abajo Mountains.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Loose Wet Avalanches:
The danger for loose wet avalanches will again quickly rise today as a strong sun melts the thin surface crust. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and "point release" sluffs that fan out and gather more snow as they travel down the slope. Timing is everything today, and you need to get off of steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.
Wet Slabs:
Record temps and light to no overnight re-freezes has produced wet slab avalanches. This type of wet snow avalanche is harder to predict than loose wet it but can be invariably more dangerous. Wet slabs release when melt water saturates a layer in the snowpack and the over riding slab fails as a cohesive layer. Outward signs of this type of problem are not obvious but sloppy, wet, or punchy snow indicates that the pack is trending towards unstable.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground, mostly above treeline on NW-N-NE aspects. Warm temperatures and percolating water in the snowpack may make these layers more reactive to the weight of a skier or rider. Thinner snowpack areas around steep convexities, or in rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche failing on this weak, faceted snow.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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