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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, April 16, 2021
Winter has returned with an overproducing storm that brought 10" or more of new snow to the mountains. This is enough snow to create new snow avalanche problems. Human-triggered loose snow sluffs and cohesive soft slabs will be likely on steep slopes on all aspects today. Approach steep terrain with caution and utilize test slopes to see how the snow is behaving. Look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface or fracturing soft slabs up to a foot deep. Northerly winds should remain mostly light today but will be on the increase tomorrow. Blowing and drifting of the new snow will cause the avalanche danger to increase. If you had your sights set on a large objective this weekend you should dial back your expectations.
Low
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Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
We're through issuing regular forecasts for the season but will update through the month with a general conditions report as significant weather conditions dictate. I would like to give a huge shout out to all who supported operations this season. This includes everyone who regularly used the forecast to stay safe; our local business sponsors Moab Gear Trader, Talking Mountain Yurts, and ROAM Industry; Black Diamond Equipment, Outdoor Research, Voile, and Arva for setting us up with the gear we need to do our job; the Manti-La Sal National Forest for their tremendous support of this program; and last but not least, our great local community and crew of dedicated observers who provide vital information and assistance throughout the season. Thanks everyone, see you next winter!
Weather and Snow
Get real-time weather data from these links:
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals and temperatures at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
NWS Weather Forecast
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Spring Time Avalanche Concerns
Loose Wet Avalanches are the most common springtime avalanche hazard as a strong sun and warm temps melt and soften the snow surface. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and "point release" sluffs that fan out and gather more snow as they travel down the slope. Timing is everything this time of year. Work slopes according to their aspect in relation to the sun and get off of steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.
Wet slabs release when melt water saturates a layer in the snowpack and the over riding slab fails as a cohesive layer. These avalanches are harder to predict than loose wet, and outward signs of this problem are not obvious, but sloppy, wet, or punchy snow indicate that the pack is trending towards unstable. Successive nights without a freeze and warm daytime temps contribute to instability. Avoid thin shallow rocky areas and terrain under cliffs, especially if the snow is becoming wet and sloppy.
New Snow can cause the avalanche danger to rise just like in the winter. Poorly bonded new snow can cause problems on all aspects when there is more than about 6" of new snow. Loose snow sluffs and soft slab avalanches are possible. This type of instability typically settles out in a day or two.
Wind Drifted Snow can create unstable drifts or slabs on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Recent wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Unstable wind drifts can linger for days or even up to a week.
Persistent Weak Layers can occasionally linger well into spring and deep and dangerous avalanches remain possible. Weak, faceted snow tends to hang around on northerly aspects and in shallower snowpack areas around cliffs and rock outcroppings. Avoiding likely trigger points such as thin slope margins or steep convexities are ways to minimize your risk for this low probability but high consequence hazard.
Additional Information
It's a wrap! See you next winter!
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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