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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, March 24, 2020
It's been several days since our last loading event and the avalanche danger has dropped to MODERATE. This is not your mother's MODERATE however. Dangerous, human triggered avalanches 2' - 4' deep remain possible on steep, wind drifted slopes that face NW-N-SE. Continue to make conservative decisions and avoid steep, wind drifted terrain.
With a strong sun and warming temps look for an increasing danger for shallow, loose, wet avalanches today. Rollerballs and pinwheels are signs of instability. Stay off of steep slopes if they become wet and sloppy.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Grand County plowed the road and parking lot yesterday. The surface is down to the dirt and will be muddy later in the day.
Grooming: LUNA packed out trails on Sunday but things were still a bit rough. A couple inches of snow have fallen since then.
UAC operating schedule - We will continue issuing regular avalanche forecasts into mid April.
Spring Awareness Campaign - The UAC counts on donations from the backcountry community. We know these are uncertain times and any donation during our awareness campaign will help us continue providing avalanche forecasting and education.
CDC Guidelines - Even in the backcountry and in parking lots, please follow CDC guidelines like limiting group size and keeping a distance of at least 6 feet from other people to protect yourself and others. Read the guidelines HERE.
Taking risks - Be extra conservative to avoid the risk of accidents which can stress the capacity of our medical system.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 3" Weekly Snow 22" Base Depth in Gold Basin 70" Wind SW 5-10 Temp 21F
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Weather: The mountains picked up a few inches of new snow yesterday and southerly winds blew in the 15-20 mph range with gusts to 30 before backing off in the early evening. Overnight they've been light. Today look for mostly sunny skies and increasing southwest winds. By afternoon they'll be blowing 20-25 mph along ridgetops with gusts to 40. High temps will be in the upper 30's. Tomorrow will continue to be windy with some clouds moving into the area. Thu-Fri brings the next storm into the region though it looks to favor points north.
Snowpack: Recent and wind drifted snow has piled up on a fragile snowpack that in many areas is comprised largely of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Weak snow can be found on all aspects but the weakest snow exists on northerly facing slopes right around treeline and below. Alpine areas generally have a deeper and stronger snowpack, especially out in the middle of concave bowls. However, slope margins, wind-swept areas, and areas right around rocks, cliffs, or sub-ridges have a much thinner snowpack. Weak, faceted snow exists in these areas. The recent spate of natural and human triggered avalanches in the alpine have included areas of wind drifted snow that have propagated into areas with weak, faceted snow.
Recent Avalanches
On Sunday, I and others observed this large natural avalanche in Red Snow Cirque. It likely ran Saturday afternoon or evening after an increase in southerly winds. Like other slides of late, it involved wind drifted snow over top of weak, faceted snow.
I also updated the report sent in by Casey Bateman with a photo of the natural avalanche that occurred in Exxon's Folley on Thursday.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recent and wind drifted snow have begun to dangerously overload the layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow that comprises much of the snowpack. Slabs 2''-4' deep now exist on top of this weak snow. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche involving these persistent weak layers on steep, wind loaded, north through easterly facing slopes right around treeline, or in shallower, rocky areas in the alpine. Avoid likely trigger points such as steep convexities or thinner snowpack areas around rock outcroppings.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Southerly winds continue to blow and drift snow on to north through easterly facing aspects. New wind drifts overly old and many slopes are fat and loaded. Drifted slopes are recognizable by their smooth, rounded, or rippled appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. In these same areas, a triggered wind slab could step down into a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Continue to avoid steep, wind loaded slopes.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With a strong sun and warming temps look for an increasing danger for shallow, loose, wet avalanches today. Rollerballs and pinwheels are signs of instability. Wet sluffs should be mostly manageable today but stay off of steep slopes if they become wet and sloppy.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.