UDOT PLANNED AVALANCHE CLOSURES!!

Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, March 20, 2021
It is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer on slopes steeper than about 35 degrees that face NW-N-E-SE and a MODERATE avalanche danger exists in these areas. Thinner snowpack areas and slopes made up of steep, rocky terrain are the most likely trigger points. With strong southerly winds today, be on the lookout for developing deposits of wind drifted snow in these same areas.
As things heat up today anticipate a MODERATE danger for loose, wet avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. Signs of instability include roller balls, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Get off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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The Geyser Pass Road has been plowed and is already melted down to the dirt in many sections. Patches of ice and snow exist and it turns muddy as the day heats up. All-wheel-drive recommended.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed into Gold Basin yesterday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 68" Wind S 20-30 G40 Temp 36F
It's warm, windy, and cloudy this morning and it did not freeze last night. As advertised, a deep Pacific trough is moving across the Great Basin spreading clouds into our region. Precipitation will be limited to northern Utah and north-central Colorado as the storm tracks to the southeast. But as I said yesterday, at least we'll get wind. Today expect cloudy skies this morning becoming mostly sunny by afternoon. Southwest winds will be strong with gusts up to 50 mph along ridge tops. High temps at 10,000' will be in the low 40's. We'll see a slight chance for a trace to an inch of snow tonight and tomorrow. Skies should become partly sunny later in the day tomorrow with mostly sunny skies on Monday. The next system to affect the area comes on Tuesday.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
Clouds, strong winds, and a lack of an overnight re-freeze would cause me to think about doing something other than skiing or riding today. Overall conditions are variable and crusty with dry, soft snow only available on sheltered northerly aspects. Time and warm temperatures have helped the snowpack adjust to the large snow load we received last weekend but it's still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow. This weak layer exists on slopes that face NW-N-E-SE, and thin snowpack areas consisting of steep, rocky terrain are the most likely trigger points. Though the snow surface is mostly crusted over, strong southerly winds may be able to etch out some snow for transport and you'll need to be alert to developing fresh wind slabs today. And finally, with the lack of a freeze, expect the potential for loose wet avalanches when temps warm and the sun comes out later today.
Recent Avalanches
In our travels up to Geyser Pass yesterday, Brian Murdock and I observed this avalanche from the March 13 cycle on a north aspect at around 11,000'. A nasty pocket like this could ruin your day or your life. Note the complex and featured terrain punctuated with rocks. The "pockety" nature of these avalanches leaves you uncertain as to where they may be found, but thin snowpack areas around steep and rocky terrain are the most likely. Steep convexities are also areas of concern.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Most of the avalanches from the last cycle did step down to a layer of weak, faceted snow near the ground, and human triggered avalanches such as this remain possible on similar slopes that have not avalanched. The greatest concern is on wind loaded slopes that face NW-NE-SE near and above treeline. Thinner snowpack areas along slope margins or near rock outcroppings are likely trigger points. Wind loaded slopes should be avoided as should areas of rocky, more radical terrain. Bottom line is that we need a little more time for things to adjust before we strike out into larger terrain. Reduce your exposure by keeping your slope angles below 35 degrees.
The following video of a propagation saw test on a NE aspect at 11,200' illustrates the kind of avalanche problem we are dealing with.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Without an overnight re-freeze, expect the potential for loose wet avalanches when temps warm and the sun comes out later today. As things heat up today be alert to signs of loose, wet instability such as rollerballs, pinwheels and sloppy wet snow up around your boot tops. Get off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Though the snow surface is mostly crusted over, strong southerly winds may be able to etch out some snow for transport and you'll need to be alert to developing shallow, fresh wind slabs today. Look for them on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and sub ridges.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.