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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, March 19, 2021
It is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer on slopes steeper than about 35 degrees that face NW-N-E-SE and a MODERATE avalanche danger exists in these areas. In addition, many of these same slopes have potentially unstable wind drifts adding to the problem, and steep, wind drifted slopes should be avoided. We've seen a recent significant load and numerous natural avalanches occurred on a known persistent weak layer. Let's give the snowpack a little more time to adjust before we venture into larger terrain.
As things heat up today anticipate a MODERATE danger for loose, wet avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. Signs of instability include roller balls, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Get off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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The Geyser Pass Road has been plowed and is already melted down to the dirt in many sections. Patches of ice and snow exist and it turns muddy as the day heats up. All-wheel-drive recommended.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) has plans to groom later today.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 69" Wind SW 10-15 Temp 22F
Another warm and sunny day is on tap. SW winds will be light and high temps at 10,000' will climb into the 40's. Clouds will increase tonight ahead of a Pacific trough that will bring unsettled weather for the weekend. Points north are favored and we aren't likely to see any precipitation but at least we'll get wind. The pattern for next week is not clearly defined but looks to be unsettled at the least.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
Last weekend's storm event brought 2-3' of snow to the mountains with more than 3" of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). A major wind event on Sunday evening saw NW winds with gusts as high as 90 mph but surprisingly, the surface is not a wind-blasted moonscape and good powder can still be found on shady aspects. Most sun-exposed slopes are crusted over. Over the last few days, time and warm temperatures have helped the snowpack adjust to this large load but it still remains possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow. Wind drifted slopes steeper than 35 degrees that face NW-N-E-SE are the most likely areas to find trouble. Let's give it some more time before we step into larger terrain.
Recent Avalanches
Chris Benson and I got a good look around up in Gold Basin on Wednesday and observed more avalanches from the March 13-14 storm event. Most of the avalanches failed on a buried persistent weak layer of faceted snow deep in the snowpack. Though numerous, they weren't what I would call widespread. Most were either repeat runners or they occurred in thinner snowpack areas around rocks and in very steep terrain on slopes facing NW-N-NE. This avalanche on Noriega's Face was one of the more impressive.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Most of the avalanches from the last cycle did step down to a layer of weak, faceted snow near the ground, and human triggered avalanches such as this remain possible on similar slopes that have not avalanched. The greatest concern is on wind loaded slopes that face NW-NE-SE near and above treeline. Thinner snowpack areas along slope margins or near rock outcroppings are likely trigger points. Wind loaded slopes should be avoided as should areas of rocky, more radical terrain. Bottom line is that we need a little more time for things to adjust before we strike out into larger terrain. Reduce your exposure by keeping your slope angles below 35 degrees.
The following video of a propagation saw test on a NE aspect at 11,200' illustrates the kind of avalanche problem we are dealing with.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Isolated, unstable wind drifts may still be found above treeline on slopes facing NW-N-E-SE. These wind slabs are becoming more difficult to trigger but if you found one in the wrong place it could carry you over a cliff or possibly step down causing a deeper, more dangerous avalanche. Take time to investigate the snowpack for signs of wind slabs including smooth, lens-like shapes, hollow-sounding snow, or even just relatively-denser snow and avoid these areas.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As things heat up today be alert to signs of loose, wet instability such as rollerballs, pinwheels and sloppy wet snow up around your boot tops. Get off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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