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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Issued by Chris Benson on
Wednesday morning, March 10, 2021
The avalanche danger remains MODERATE today with two potential problems.
  • Persistent Weak Layer Deep and dangerous human-triggered avalanches failing on a layer of sugary, faceted snow remain possible primarily on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-E-SE. This is becoming a low probability/high consequence situation. Shallow areas along slope margins and near rock outcroppings or sparse trees are potential trigger points.
  • Wind Drifts About 4" of new snow and strong southerly winds have deposited isolated, unstable wind drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain on slopes facing W-N-E. Avoid steep wind drifted slopes.
The avalanche danger is LOW on S-SW facing slopes and all aspects below treeline.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road is down to the dirt on the lower third. The upper third is a sloppy slurry of mud and melted snow.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed and set classic track into Gold Basin on Thursday. Traffic over the weekend has roughed up the surface.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 4" 72 Hour Snow 4" Base Depth in Gold Basin 49" Wind S 15-20 G40 Temp 16F
Yesterday, a fast and furious shortwave brought increasing clouds, strong southerly winds, brief rain, and 4" of dense snow, followed by a solid freeze overnight. Today, expect a chance of isolated snow showers with a broken cloud deck at 12,000' with a brief clearing around mid-day, followed by increasing clouds. Expect a high near 33 F (10,000'), and southwest winds ranging from 20-30 mph with gusts into the 40 mph range, that will relax throughout the day, until evening when the wind picks back up again. The deep low pressure system over the coast will bring cooler and unsettled weather for the rest of the week. While much of the moisture associated with this system appears to be headed to the Front Range of Colorado, our area will likely receive a decent amount of snow. Stay tuned for details.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
The snowpack is highly variable, with large differences across aspects and elevations. Overall, warm temperatures over the last several days and even some rain yesterday evening followed by a hard freeze overnight has strengthened the snowpack. The 4" of fairly dense (0.4" SWE) overnight snow won't increase the danger much, however, gusty southerly winds have formed shallow slabs in open areas near and above treeline.
Yesterday, slopes near and below treeline on W-S-E aspects had moist snow throughout much of the profile underneath crusts of variable thickness ranging from 1-5 cm. On more northerly aspects, the snow remains dry, and snow surfaces consists of dense, settled powder in sheltered areas. In more open areas, the wind has redistributed snow and riding conditions are quite variable. Weak snow near the ground is present on NW-NE-SE aspects near and above treeline.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Poor snowpack structure exists with consolidated slabs resting on buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow on NW-NE-SE aspects near and above treeline. Westerly slopes that receive more sun and warmer temperatures appear to be slowly gaining strength. The most dangerous areas include places where wind-drifted snow has created slabs 1'-3' deep on top of these buried weak layers. These avalanches are becoming harder to trigger but once released, they will be large and destructive. Likely trigger points include shallower areas along slope margins, around sparse trees or rock outcroppings, or on repeat running slide paths.
Stability tests were inconsistent on this ENE aspect near treeline location, possibly due to some shallowly-buried rocks. Both failure and propagation became more pronounced near the buried rocks and could illustrate that while hard-to-trigger, dense slabs resting on loose facets are still capable of producing a large and destructive avalanche if you hit a weak spot where the slab thins.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Over the last two days, 20-50 mph southerly winds have been redistributing what little snow is available for transporting onto a variety of aspects on the northern half of the compass. With some fresh snow and more wind in the forecast today, look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features like sub-ridges and gully walls. On steep, northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added additional stress to buried persistent weak layers. You could trigger a wind slab that then steps-down into deeper instabilities below. The bottom line is that steep, wind loaded, northerly-facing terrain is where you are most likely to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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