Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation NEW - Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills On-Snow Courses Resources and Tutorials
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Monday, February 20, 2023
A MODERATE danger exists for human triggered avalanches involving slabs of wind drifted snow primarily on northerly aspects near and above treeline. In some of these areas, wind slabs may be overlying a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow and human triggered avalanches 1'-2' deep are possible. Most other terrain has generally LOW danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed and the surface is snowpacked.
Grooming: Gold Basin through Geyser Pass were groomed on Thursday.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 198" Base Depth at Gold Basin 71"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak WSW 20-25 Temp 24 F
Weather
Today will be our last full sunny day for awhile before a powerful storm system churning off the west coast begins it's trek inland on Tuesday. Westerly winds today will blow in the 15-25 mph range along ridge tops, and high temps at 10,000' will be near 30F. Clouds will begin to move into the area on Tuesday, and SW winds will be on the increase gusting to 50 mph by late afternoon. Winds will continue to increase with snowfall beginning sometime Tuesday night. By Wednesday, all h**l breaks loose with heavy snowfall and 40-50 mph southerly winds with gusts as high as 70 mph. A foot or more of snow seems likely, but with winds like this it's hard to say. The storm winds down on Thursday, but unsettled weather will keep a chance for snow alive through Friday.
General Conditions
Variable snow conditions exist after the effects of wind and sun over the weekend but soft snow can still be found in sheltered areas. Travis Nauman and co. were out on Saturday and he reported blowing and drifting snow with fresh slab development on northerly aspects near and above treeline. He also confirmed the spotty existence of the weak, faceted layer we've been tracking. Read his full observation here. Continue to avoid steep, wind drifted slopes, and if you haven't dug down to look for the faceted weak layer, hope it isn't on the slope you are choosing to ride as you may trigger an avalanche a foot or more deep.
Good snow for good skiers? Blowing and drifting snow near treeline. Travis Nauman photo.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported. See the La Sal Avalanche database here.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Southwesterly winds have drifted snow on to north and easterly aspects building slabs that may be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. Look for them on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and sub ridges. In some areas, wind drifts old and new are overlying a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow that formed during the dry period earlier this month. This condition isn't widespread, and the only way you will know for sure is to dig down and look. See more on this below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unfortunately, a layer of weak, faceted snow is turning up too often to be ignored. The tricky part is that it doesn't exist everywhere, and in some cases it's lying under older wind slabs. Local observers have been helping us search for this weak layer and Travis Nauman found it in several areas yesterday while also confirming that it's not on every slope. What this means is that for the time being, you're going to need to do a slope by slope analysis if you're thinking about getting into steep, northerly facing terrain. In the longer term, let's hope we get enough snow this week to give it a test.
In my travels last week I found this layer of faceted snow on some slopes but not others. In the photo above I've highlighted the weak layer by pressing into it with my hand. This is on a N aspect at 11,000'.
I dug this pit on a nearby NE aspect at 11,000' and didn't find the weak layer. The "here but not there" nature of the weak layer makes things tricky and I recommend a slope by slope analysis if you are considering riding steep, northerly facing terrain.
Additional Information
Are you wondering how cell phones and other electronic devices can interfere with your avalanche transceiver? The "20/50 Rule" is that you want your beacon 20cm (8") away from other electronics while transmitting and 50cm (20") away from electronics while searching. Get the full scoop here.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >