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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, December 13, 2021
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, mid to upper elevation terrain that faces NW through E and human triggered soft slab avalanches, up to 2' deep failing on a buried persistent weak layer are likely. Additional blowing and drifting snow will exacerbate the problem by adding additional weight and stress to these slopes.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on low elevation, northerly facing slopes, and on W and SE aspects where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Coverage remains quite thin and a ride in an avalanche would be brutal in these shallow snow conditions. Enjoy the recent snow but beware of lingering obstacles below the surface and keep your stoke reigned in!
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The road is plowed but it is a bit soft and narrow. All wheel drive and good tires required.
Grooming: Game on! Superstar groomer volunteer Matt Hebberd from Rim Tours rolled out the Geyser Pass road and into Gold Basin on Sunday.
Batteries for Beacons runs through Dec 19. Get free batteries for your transceiver and a chance to win 1 of 10 Black Diamond Rescue Kits, 1 of 3 Mammut Barryvox transceivers, or 1 of 3 BCA Tracker transceivers. Stop in at Moab Gear Trader, fill out our survey and get a free set of batteries. Don't need batteries, but still want a chance to win? Simply fill out the survey to be registered.
I was recently interviewed by Peggy Hodgkins for Science Moab. You can listen to the podcast: The Art of Avalanche Forecasting here.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 28" Wind S 20-25 G35 Temp 29F
Southerly winds have remained steady in their assault averaging 20-25 mph with gusts into the 30's and 40's since late Saturday night. Today will be a repeat performance of yesterday though we may see a few high clouds. Otherwise look for mostly sunny skies and continued breezy southerly winds. Temps will be slightly warmer at around 30F. Tonight should see a few more clouds and then the winds really start to get after it on Tuesday as the remnants of the Sierra Special atmospheric river storm system begins to move into our region. Snow should begin Tuesday night and linger into Wednesday. I'm for hoping for 6" at this point.
Yesterday's winds blew and drifted snow while scouring exposed surfaces, and reports from observers continue to tell the story of dangerous conditions. Local sledder Aron Smith called in to report widespread avalanche activity from Thursday's storm over in Dark Canyon as well as continued sensitive conditions and avalanching road cuts. Nate Ament reported heavy wind transport as well as continued collapsing and whumphing in Gold Basin. Read his report here.
Weather Links
BRAND NEW! Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
The Pre Laurel Peak wind station is back online after we got up on Saturday to clean off all the rime!
Recent Avalanches
Under clear skies yesterday we were able to observe a fair amount of natural avalanche activity up in Gold Basin and in the burn zone in upper Brumley Creek. These all ran during the height of the storm on Thursday night. Go here for the complete list.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
And so it begins. Snow that has been sitting around on the ground since October has become weak and faceted, and a dense, soft slab up to 2' thick is sitting on top. This condition exists on slopes facing NW through E and will likely pose a persistent weak layer problem for the foreseeable future. Increasing southerly winds today will drift additional snow on to these aspects thereby increasing the load on this fragile snowpack structure. Human triggered avalanches remain likely in these areas.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Southerly winds today will blow and drift snow on to northerly aspects increasing the danger for human triggered avalanches. Some cross-loading may occur on slopes facing W or SE. On slopes facing NW through E, these fresh drifts will add additional stress to pre-existing slabs that formed during the storm. These older slabs are sitting on top of a buried persistent weak layer and avalanches breaking up to 2' deep are likely. The strategy today is simple - avoid steep slopes facing NW through E, as well as any area where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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