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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 12, 2021
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, mid to upper elevation terrain that faces NW through E and human triggered soft slab avalanches, up to 2' deep failing on a buried persistent weak layer are likely. Additional blowing and drifting snow will exacerbate the problem by adding additional weight and stress to these slopes.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on low elevation, northerly facing slopes, and on W and SE aspects where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Coverage remains quite thin and a ride in an avalanche would be brutal in these shallow snow conditions. Enjoy the recent snow but beware of lingering obstacles below the surface and keep your stoke reigned in!
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The road is plowed but it is a bit soft and narrow. All wheel drive and good tires required.
Grooming: Equipment is on site and trail grooming will begin soon!
Batteries for Beacons runs through Dec 19. Get free batteries for your transceiver and a chance to win 1 of 10 Black Diamond Rescue Kits, 1 of 3 Mammut Barryvox transceivers, or 1 of 3 BCA Tracker transceivers. Stop in at Moab Gear Trader, fill out our survey and get a free set of batteries. Don't need batteries, but still want a chance to win? Simply fill out the survey to be registered.
I was recently interviewed by Peggy Hodgkins for Science Moab. You can listen to the podcast: The Art of Avalanche Forecasting here.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 19" Base Depth in Gold Basin 29" Wind S 20-30 G40 Temp 22F
The story is the wind. Ramping up around midnight it's been blowing up on Pre Laurel Peak in the 20-30 mph range with gusts in the 40's ever since. Under sunny skies, breezy southerly winds will blow throughout the day. High temps at 10,000' will be in the mid 20's. Monday will see increasing clouds and continued breezy SW winds ahead of the next storm system to move into the area on Tue-Wed.
Thursday's storm delivered 19" of dense snow to the mountain. Under clear skies yesterday we were able to observe a fair amount of natural avalanche activity from the storm. We continued to observe collapsing and whumphing on shady, northerly facing terrain that had pre-existing, weak and sugary snow on the ground from October. The snow density and "right side up" nature made travel fairly easy, and turning is possible on lower angle terrain. It's also dense enough to keep you up off the ground so grassy, low angle terrain is the place to be.
Weather Links
BRAND NEW! Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
The Pre Laurel Peak wind station is back online after we got up yesterday to clean off all the rime!
Recent Avalanches
Under clear skies yesterday we were able to observe a fair amount of natural avalanche activity up in Gold Basin and in the burn zone in upper Brumley Creek. These all ran during the height of the storm on Thursday night. Go here for the complete list.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
And so it begins. Snow that has been sitting around on the ground since October has become weak and faceted, and a dense, soft slab up to 2' thick is sitting on top. This condition exists on slopes facing NW through E and will likely pose a persistent weak layer problem for the foreseeable future. Increasing southerly winds today will drift additional snow on to these aspects thereby increasing the load on this fragile snowpack structure. Human triggered avalanches remain likely in these areas.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Southerly winds today will blow and drift snow on to northerly aspects increasing the danger for human triggered avalanches. Some cross-loading may occur on slopes facing W or SE. On slopes facing NW through E, these fresh drifts will add additional stress to pre-existing slabs that formed during the storm. These older slabs are sitting on top of a buried persistent weak layer and avalanches breaking up to 2' deep are likely. The strategy today is simple - avoid steep slopes facing NW through E, as well as any area where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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