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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, January 7, 2023
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep wind drifted slopes near treeline and above that face the north half of the compass. This danger also exists on slopes facing W and SE at upper elevations. We're entering a tricky phase where human triggered avalanches, failing on a buried persistent weak layer, remain likely on some slopes but not others. It's impossible to tell which ones and avoiding slopes steeper than 30 degrees remains the only safe strategy in these areas.
A MODERATE danger exists on most other South through West facing slopes near treeline and above, and on northerly aspects below treeline. Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible in these areas.
Travel tip: Stick to low angle sheltered terrain for the BEST and SAFEST riding today.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The road is plowed, but there are still some deep spots and ruts, especially near the top. 4x4 recommended.
Grooming: All trails have been groomed and are in excellent shape.
Improve your avalanche awareness and rescue skills and sign up for our Backcountry 101 Class on January 20, 21.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 130" Base Depth at Gold Basin 61"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak NA Temp 11F
Weather
Overnight westerly winds have been light and temps this morning range from single digits up high to 18F at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. Brief ridging today will bring mostly sunny skies, light SW winds, and high temps in the mid 20's. We'll see mostly cloudy skies on Sunday as a weak shortwave clips by to the north with a slight chance for snow Monday. A better chance for snow develops on Wednesday.
General Conditions
Consecutive storms from Dec 27 - Jan 2, brought more than 4' of snow to the mountains at 5.0" of Snow Water Equivalent bringing our snowpack up to 210% of normal. Conditions have been all time and coverage is excellent. SE winds on Thursday moved the snow around building slabs of wind drifted snow on leeward slopes while scouring windward aspects. Soft, settled snow can still be found in sheltered areas. The heavy load of snow produced two significant avalanche cycles with avalanches up to 1000' wide failing on the November persistent weak layer. This has been a good load test for those slopes that remain intact, but it also shows the potential for avalanches to fail on this weak layer. Human triggered avalanches remain likely on some slopes but not all. As the danger curve starts to trend downward, we enter the stage where most fatal avalanches occur. With sunny skies on tap today stoke will be high, but let's keep it dialed back just a little bit longer.
Most avalanche fatalities occur along the line where the danger is moving up from Moderate to Considerable, or back down from Considerable to Moderate.
Lots of folks have been getting up and enjoying all the great snow, you can read all La Sal observations here.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanches have been reported since the Monday cycle when several large naturals occurred. View the La Sal avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A buried persistent weak layer that formed in November is present on all aspects in the La Sal range. The big New Year's storm produced several large and destructive avalanches near treeline and above on slopes that face NW-N-NE. Blowing and drifting snow is continuing to add stress to these slopes and you will find the greatest danger on the North half of the compass. Recent stability tests have shown that the weak layer is gaining strength. Avalanches are becoming harder to trigger on this layer, but the consequences remain the same. Any avalanche triggered on the deeply buried PWL would be massive and devastating.
Signs of instability have become less obvious as we get further away from our last loading event. The very large crowns and debris piles around Gold Basin should be a good reminder of what is lurking under the snow. Most accidents occur when the danger is moving from Considerable to Moderate, keep this in mind today.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On Thursday winds out of the SSE were blowing in the 30's with gusts in the 40's. Plumes of snow could be seen shooting off the high peaks from down in town. Recent slabs of wind drifted snow will be most pronounced on leeward slopes on the North half of the compass. These slopes are loaded well below ridge lines, further down than you might expect. Strong winds have the ability to load any aspect, because terrain features can cause winds to shift and change direction. Look for recent drifts on all aspects above treeline.
Wind drifted snow is stiffer and more cohesive than non drifted snow. Hard drifts often sound hollow and drum like. Freshly formed wind drifts are quite sensitive and easily triggered. Old, hard wind slabs can be stubborn and allow you to get far out on to them before they fail. Shooting cracks in the snow are a good indicator that you have stepped onto a wind drift.
Dave took this photo on Thursday. The peak in the center is Mt. Mellenthin. The plumes of snow shooting off the peak are obvious. Even from town we can tell that Northerly slopes were being loaded.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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