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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, January 11, 2022
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes facing NW through E near and above treeline where it is still possible to trigger a large, deep, and very dangerous hard slab avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer. The danger increases with elevation and wind loaded slopes are more suspect.
Though the likelihood of triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche continues to trend downward, an avalanche of this magnitude would be un-survivable. Careful terrain choices and avoidance of steep, northerly facing terrain is the only guaranteed strategy.
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Special Announcements
The beacon training park is up and running above the Geyser Pass Trailhead. Pull out your beacon and practice your skills as you head up the trail!
Road Conditions: The road to Geyser Pass Trailhead is plowed but snow packed. AWD and good tires are recommended.
Grooming: Rock star groomer Matt Hebberd from LUNA groomed all trails on Sunday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 44" Wind SW 5-10 Temp 18F
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
NWS Weather Forecast
Snowpack
The odds of triggering a large avalanche continue to decrease each day. A persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow still exists at the base of the snow pack, but snow pits and stability tests indicate that this weak layer is becoming harder to affect. Nevertheless, it is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche on a steep northerly aspect. Likely trigger points include thinner snowpack areas such as the lines along slope margins, near rocky outcrops, or on steep convexities. In terrain such as this, the buried weak layer is more easily affected by the weight of a skier or rider.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported since the Dec 31 avalanche cycle. Go here for the complete list.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of of sugary, faceted snow exists at the base of the snow pack and dense slab 3'-6' thick is sitting on top. Time, warmer temperatures, and compression from the load are helping to heal this weak layer, and snow pits and stability tests performed by myself and local observers indicate that it is gaining strength. Brian Sparks sent in this observation where he observed rounding and bonding of the weak, faceted grains in an area where the snowpack was 195 cm deep. Generally speaking, the deeper the snowpack, the stronger it is. This weak layer still remains a concern in areas where the snowpack is thin, and therefore much more easily affected by the weight of a skier or rider.
Photo illustrates strong slab over weak, October facets. Extended column tests produced no results and it's becoming harder for the weight of a skier or rider to affect this basal weak layer. Propagation saw tests however show that it is still possible for a slab to fail and propagate. Shallower snowpack areas are likely trigger points.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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