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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Wednesday morning, February 3, 2021
Heavy snow and drifting from strong winds will cause increasing danger today. Dangerous avalanche conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger already exist on many slopes in the Logan Zone, and people are likely to trigger dangerous avalanches if they venture into steep terrain at all elevations. The danger could rise to HIGH later today on drifted upper elevation slopes facing northwest through southeast. Avalanches of fresh wind drifted snow will be increasingly likely, as well as more dangerous avalanches involving old snow, failing on a widespread buried persistent weak layer. Rain on the snow at lower elevations has created potential of loose wet avalanches on steep slopes with saturated snow.
  • Avoid travel in avalanche terrain.
  • Stay off and out from under drifted slopes steeper than about 30 degrees.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
It's snowing heavily in the mountains this morning, temperatures are dropping, and strong winds from the southwest are blowing and drifting snow. As of early this morning, weather stations in the Central Bear river Range report an inch or two of accumulation. Southwest winds are blowing around 30 mph with gusts in the 60s, and temperatures are falling, currently reading 25 °F at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station.
Dangerous avalanche conditions already exist on drifted slopes in the backcountry, especially on upper elevation slopes facing northwest through southeast. Heavy snow and drifting from westerly winds will cause the avalanche danger to rise during the day. We recommend people avoid travel in avalanche terrain and stay off and out from under slopes steeper than about 30 degrees. Heavy snow is expected today, with 5 to 9 inches of accumulation possible on upper elevation slopes. Winds will veer from the west and then northwest, and temperatures will drop to around 20°F at 8500' this afternoon. Snow showers will continue tonight and tomorrow. More snow is quite possible Thursday night and Friday, with 6 to 14 inches possible, and it looks like fair weather in in store for the weekend.
On Monday we went up to the Naomi Peak Area to check out a large natural avalanche in Castle Rock that looks like it ran early Saturday before anybody could get up in the area. Here is our video....
Recent Avalanches
Tragically, a skier was killed in an avalanche on Square Top in the backcountry above Park City on Saturday. Accident Report
Locally: A party of riders remote triggered a couple large avalanches in the Logan Peak Area yesterday, (2-2-2021). One, running into Mill Hollow was 7 or 8 feet deep and pulled out all the season's snow to the ground.
  • Sunday (1-31-2021), There was a close call near Steam Mill Lake on Sunday. Details are limited, but a snowmobiler triggered a large avalanche and apparently escaped harm.
  • Saturday (1-30-2021), Riders triggered a good sized avalanche on the east face of Doubletop Mountain (or Gun Sight). Nobody was caught, but another sizable avalanche sympathetically released, and both avalanches crossed the party's previous tracks on the slope.
  • There were numerous avalanches locally and across the Utah mountains in the past few days. Visit our avalanche list HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Heavy snow today will add weight to slopes that may already be near the tipping point..Very weak sugary or faceted snow is widespread across the region, and people are likely to trigger avalanches where a slab of more cohesive snow has formed on top of the weak snow. Natural avalanches will become increasingly likely, especially during periods of rapid accumulation, as heavy snow overloads slopes with poor snow structure or unstable snow.
  • Avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse from below!
  • Cracking and collapsing of the snow are a red flag, indicating unstable snow conditions.
These large faceted snow grains make up a nasty buried persistent weak layer that is widespread in the Logan Zone. It exists on slopes at all elevations across the zone. (Stump Hollow, 1-30-2021)
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's pretty windy even at mid and lower elevations this morning. Westerly winds today will drift today's fresh snow into lee slope avalanche starting zones, and build drifts and soft wind slabs on steep slopes at all elevations. Recent drifting has already created thick cohesive slabs at upper elevations, significant drifting could occur with today's storm, avalanche danger will rise, natural avalanches are increasingly possible, and people are likely trigger avalanches in the backcountry.
  • Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge tops and in and around terrain features like gullies, scoops, cliff bands, and sub ridges.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Loose wet avalanches are possible on steep slopes with rain saturated snow.
Additional Information
Do you have the essential avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, probe, and shovel) and do you know how to use them? Watch this video to see how the three pieces of equipment work together. HERE
Please keep practicing with the Beacon Training Park at the Franklin Basin Trailhead. Test yourself and your riding partners. It is free, fun, and easy to use.
Tim Monsell - Logan/Evanston rock climber and telemark skier exited through the portal into the eternal happy powder grounds. Scout it out for us Tim.
Tim Monsell at the Beav!
General Announcements
Thanks to the generous support of our local resorts, Ski Utah, and Backcountry, discount lift tickets are now available. Support the UAC while you ski at the resorts this season. Tickets are available here.
Visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
I will update this forecast by around 7:30 tomorrow morning.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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