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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Tuesday, February 21, 2023
Very heavy snowfall, rain down low, and drifting by strong winds from the west will rapidly elevate backcountry avalanche danger today. There is CONSIDERABLE danger already this morning on drifted slopes at all elevations, natural avalanches are possible and people are likely to trigger avalanches of wind drifted snow on slopes steeper than 30°.
HIGH avalanche danger is likely to develop in many areas later this evening or tonight. Natural avalanches will be likely, and some could be long running and destructive.
Make conservative decisions and evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning
What: The avalanche danger for the warning area will rise to HIGH
When: In effect from 4pm MST this afternoon to 6am MST Wednesday.
Where: For the mountains and foothills of Northern Utah and Southeast Idaho including the Northern Wasatch Range, the Bear River Range, and the foothills surrounding Cache and Bear Lake Valleys.
Impacts: Very heavy snow, rain down low, and drifting from sustained and gusty west winds will create widespread areas of unstable snow. Both human triggered and natural avalanches are likely. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Weather and Snow
Wind slab avalanches are likely today in windy terrain at all elevations, and they're more likely and could be larger at upper elevations. It looks like we're in for quite a storm that could drop a few feet of snow and tons of SWE, which will overload slopes with widespread shallowly buried persistent weak layers. Last week and yesterday I found areas with layers of very weak sugary or faceted snow on slopes facing all directions and at all elevations, especially worrisome to me is that faceted snow is widespread at lower elevations (below around 7500'
Two feet of snow could accumulate today at upper elevations in the Bear River Range, and before turning to snow, rain could saturate layers of weak snow at lower elevations. Significant drifting is likely at all elevations, with very strong winds dropping into terrain and continuing to blow from the west. Today's extreme weather could cause rocketing avalanche danger in some areas. Large and long running natural avalanches will become increasingly likely tonight.
***Tonight is probably not a good one to camp in the backcountry, but if that's the plan, avoid being in avalanche terrain. Stay off and out from under slopes steeper than 30°
The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports 27° F this morning, and there is 97 inches of total snow., The winds at the CSI weather station at 9700' on Logan Peak are from the west-southwest, blowing 38 mph average, gusting to 63 mph at 0700 this morning.
Here is the NWS point forecast for high elevations in the Central Bear River Range:
Today: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Temperature falling to around 20 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as 3. Windy, with a west southwest wind 31 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.
Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 8pm. Low around 6. Wind chill values as low as -8. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 19 to 24 mph decreasing to 13 to 18 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Wednesday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 7 by 8am. Wind chill values as low as -13. Breezy, with an east wind 13 to 22 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Wintery weather will continue into next weekend
Recent Avalanches
We observed a few recent natural avalanches of wind drifted snow in the Logan and Ogden Zones yesterday, these were around a foot deep and a hundred feet wide..
Over the weekend skiers in the Central Bear River Range and near Logan Peak remotely triggered a few small wind slab avalanches. Saturday report is HERE
For a list of avalanches in the Logan Zone go HERE
Find a list of all recent observations & avalanches from across Utah HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
  • Avoid corniced slopes and stiffer drifts on steep slopes near ridges and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, mid-slope break-overs, and gully walls.
  • Last week and over the weekend shallow wind slabs formed on weak surface snow. These continue to build today and could be sensitive to triggering by people.
  • Wind slabs consist of stiffer drifted snow. Today, soft slab avalanches of drifted storm snow are most likely, but hard wind slabs also formed before the snow fell and some of these could still be sensitive to triggering.
  • Hard wind slabs sometimes allow people to get out on them before releasing like a big mouse trap. They are often rounded and chalky looking and can make hollow, drum-like sounds.
  • Some harder wind slabs are probably now hidden by fresh powder.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
  • Small soft slab and loose avalanches of storm snow will be likely in steep terrain. The danger of storm snow avalanches will increase rapidly as snow stacks up today, with a couple feet of accumulation possible. Natural avalanches are most likely during periods of very heavy snowfall.
  • Loose wet avalanches entraining significant piles of saturated snow are possible at lower elevations, size and likelihood depending of the amount of rain.
  • Even small avalanches of wind slab or loose snow can be a problem, especially if you get carried into trees, gullies, benches, or rocks.
Additional Information
General Announcements
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Logan and Ogden Ranger Districts HERE, and a close up of the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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