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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Friday, February 2, 2024
The danger is MODERATE in the Logan Area backcountry. People might trigger dangerous hard slab avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer in rocky terrain with shallow snow. Natural wet avalanches are possible on slopes steeper than 30° at low elevations where the snow is saturated by rain.
Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. Avoid steep rocky areas with shallow coverage and low-elevation slopes with soft rain-saturated snow.
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Weather and Snow
Rain is saturating the low-elevation snow, but it is snowing up higher. A few inches of heavy new snow should stick pretty well to the crusty old snow surface and do wonders for riding conditions. Wet avalanches are possible at lower elevations, but the new snow will not change avalanche conditions much higher in the mountains. People may encounter shallow and soft wind slabs in exposed upper-elevation terrain later in the day on slopes where more than expected new snow accumulates, but lower-angled terrain will offer much better conditions.
The wind is blowing from the east-southeast this morning around 20 mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and it's 27° F. At 9500' on Paris Peak, it’s 25° F, and winds are blowing 5 to 10 mph from the southeast.
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 31° F and an inch of new snow. The station reports 72 inches of total snow, containing 115% of the average SWE (Snow Water Equivalent).
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory continuing through Saturday evening. Today, expect snow in the mountains, with 3 to 5 inches of accumulation possible on upper-elevation slopes. Rainfall should change to snowfall this afternoon down lower. High temperatures at 8500' are expected to be around 33° F, with 10 mph winds blowing from the southeast this morning, but coming around from the west this afternoon.
Snow is expected to continue in the higher elevations tomorrow, with 1 to 3 inches of accumulation possible. Mountain temperatures are expected to top out at around 26° F, and winds from west-northwest are expected to continue, blowing in excess of 20 mph.
Light snowfall will continue through Sunday and Sunday night with little in the way of accumulation expected. Heavier snow is expected again on Monday, with 3 to 7 inches of accumulation possible.
Recent Avalanches
A natural wet loose and hard slab avalanche cycle occurred Sunday due to rapid warming. The wet activity mainly occurred on south-facing slopes at all elevations, and some large slab avalanches failed on the December persistent weak layer.
  • Evidence of a large natural wet avalanche was observed Tuesday on Mitton Peak in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness. The avalanche, visible from Highway 89/91, started at around 8400' in elevation on a southeast-facing slope and ran around 2000 vertical feet.
  • A very large natural wet avalanche was witnessed by a professional observer in Green Canyon a little after noon on Sunday. see the report
  • A large avalanche on Wilderness Peak near Gibson Lakes in Franklin Basin was either naturally occurring or remotely triggered by riders on Sunday. It was reported on Monday by riders who noticed recent sled tracks in the area. report is here
Tuesday's wet avalanche on Mitton Peak entrained a large pile of heavy debris and ran around 2000 vrt'
Check out local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Although increasingly unlikely, hard slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer could be large and life-threatening. In January, heavy snow and drifting overloaded slopes plagued by a widespread persistent weak layer that formed in the December dry spell. Rapid warming over the weekend caused some slopes to be unstable and there were a few large avalanches. Cooling today will increase snow stability, but dangerous avalanches are still possible in steep rocky terrain with shallow snow and poor snowpack structure, a stiff slab on top of a layer of weak, sugary, or faceted snow.
  • Avalanches still might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or even from below!
  • Audible collapsing (or whumpfs), cracking, and recent avalanches are obvious signs of instability. However, these red flags may not be present when avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer occur.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Rain on the snow at lower elevations will likely cause the snow to become saturated and unstable. Natural wet avalanches are possible on slopes steeper than 30°, so it's not a good idea to be under steep slopes with saturated snow. If you go fishing in the Logan River, be aware of potential wet avalanches coming from the steep slopes above.
  • Roller balls, pinwheels, and loose wet avalanches or sluffs are signs that the snow is unstable.
  • A smaller wet loose avalanche or sluff overrunning a slope with poor snow structure could initiate a larger and more dangerous avalanche.
Additional Information
General Announcements
Here is Tuesday's short video about last weekend's large hard-slab avalanche on Wilderness Peak above Gibson Lakes in Franklin Basin, a few miles north of the UT/ID State Line.
-Read my recent blog about wind, drifting, and avalanches HERE
-Come practice companion rescue with your backcountry partners at the Franklin Basin TH beacon training park. video HERE.
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
-I will update this forecast by 7:30 AM tomorrow.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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