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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Friday, November 30, 2018
Dangerous avalanche conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger exist on shady upper elevation slopes, in areas that had snow before Thanksgiving. It's much less dangerous and there are nice powder conditions where there was no snow on the ground before the holiday, but wind slab and new snow avalanches are becoming increasingly possible as fresh snow stacks up on mountain slopes. Evaluate snow carefully, use cautious route finding, and make conservative decisions.
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Special Announcements
Join us on Wednesday December 5th to celebrate the coming of winter! Our 15th Annual Pray for Snow Party and Fundraiser is at The Cache with music from Two Headed Trout, pizza from Lucky Slice, beverages from Moab Brewery, and a raffle and silent auction if amazing donated items. Thanks for your support of avalanche awareness and education. We look forward to seeing you! Tickets available online: CLICK HERE.
Weather and Snow
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 8" of new snow with 0.8"Snow Water Equivalent in the last 24 hours. It's 26º F and there's 32"of total snow, containing 99% of average SWE. It's 19º F at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station and a west-southwest wind is blowing 15 to 20 mph.
Snow is likely in the mountains again later today, mainly after 11:00 AM, with 3 to 5 inches of accumulation possible. High temperatures at 8500' will be around 27º F, with 10 to 15 mph west-southwest wind. 3 to 7 inches of additional accumulation is possible tonight, with a low temperature around 14º F and 15 to 25 mph west winds. Wind chills will be around -1º F. High pressure will briefly return Saturday, before the next storm arrives Saturday night into Sunday.
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist on upper elevation slopes that held snow before the Thanksgiving storm, and human triggered persistent slab avalanches are likely. Much less danger and excellent powder conditions exist where was no pre-Thanksgiving snow, but fresh snow is piling up rapidly and avalanches are increasingly possible on many upper and mid-elevation slopes.
Recent Avalanches
There were numerous natural and perhaps a couple remote triggered persistent slab avalanches in the central Bear River Range over the Thanksgiving weekend. Evidence of many avalanches observed in the Tony Grove Area included Miller Bowl, Secret Slot, Blind Hollow Saddle into Rock Bowl, Grandfather Cornice, and sizable pockets of Cornice Ridge.
Some blow-in evidence of a fairly widespread natural avalanche cycle that occurred during the Thanksgiving storm.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
You are likely to trigger dangerous persistent slab avalanches in shady upper elevation terrain that didn't naturally avalanche during the Thanksgiving storm. Even small avalanches can be very dangerous with such shallow snow cover. You could get dragged through rocks or deadfall if you get caught and carried.
  • Very weak faceted snow pre-existed the Thanksgiving storm snow on shady upper and mid-elevation slopes.
  • The weak snow was fairly shallow in the Logan Zone, so resulting slab avalanches will likely be on smooth slopes or in pockets between rocky anchors and terrain features.
  • Collapsing and cracking indicate that the snow is unstable.
Shallow but loose faceted snow lurks under the Thanksgiving slab, and fresh powder is piling up on north facing slopes at upper elevations.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Moderate winds drifted the light fresh snow at upper elevations, building soft drifts on the lee side of sub-ridges and in and around terrain features like gullies, cliff bands, scoops, and tree stringers.. Avoid recently drifted snow in steep terrain. Southeast wind drifted snow into some unusual or unexpected areas at upper elevations during the day yesterday.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Loose sluffs and soft slab avalanches involving new snow are possible on steep upper and mid-elevation slopes that have received significant accumulations in the past couple days. Increased instability and natural avalanches are possible during periods of particularly heavy snowfall.
General Announcements
The Tony Grove Road is open but not maintained for winter travel of wheeled vehicles. With a few more inches of snow, the road is likely to be sketchy to try to drive on again today, especially up high. The Tony Grove Road is shared use with vehicles, sleds, pedestrians and dogs, so please use caution, keep your speed down and be nice.
Snow is starting to pile up on the slopes of Beaver Mountain, and managers are glad to allow uphill traffic. You can avoid the Tony Grove Road challenge, find generally safe conditions in lower angled terrain, and help pack out the ski hill. We found pretty nice, smooth powder conditions up there yesterday, and good coverage. Remember, before it opens, Beaver Mountain is the backcountry.
Join the UAC for the 2nd Annual Ogden Backcountry Bash at The Front Climbing Gym in Ogden. Beer, pizza, silent auction, prizes, and climbing! November 29 6:30 PM - 9:30 PM The Front Climbing Club, 225 20th street, Ogden UT 84401
Now is a great time to practice companion rescue techniques with your backcountry partners.
Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations. HERE You can call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your Instagram.
This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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