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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, January 30, 2023
Human triggered avalanches are likely, natural avalanches possible, and the danger is CONSIDERABLE at upper and mid elevations in the backcountry. People are likely to trigger slab avalanches of wind drifted snow up to 3 feet thick, as well as loose dry or wet avalanches entraining significant volumes of moist fresh snow in sunny terrain. The danger is MODERATE at lower elevations where smaller human triggered avalanches remain possible.
  • Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and conservative decision making are required for safe travel in avalanche terrain.
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Weather and Snow
I've noted a fair amount of settlement in the fresh snow, and it is rapidly becoming more stable now that the storm has moved on.
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports over three feet of new snow from last weekend's storm with 4.3 inches of SWE (Snow Water Equivalent). The temperature is -5° F, and there is now 107 inches of total snow. The CSI Logan Peak weather station at 9700' is showing winds blowing from the west-northwest this morning around 25 mph with -7° F.
Today will be sunny but very cold, temperatures at 8500' will top out around 10° F and winds blowing from the north-northwest at around 10 mph will create wind chill values around -28° F.
Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with low temperatures around -9° F, and 10 mph winds from the north will bring wind chill values down to around -24° F.
Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and cold, with high temperatures around 14° F, and moderate winds blowing from the west creating wind chill values around -14° F.
It looks like gradual warming as the work week progresses and a possibility of a little snow on Friday.
Recent Avalanches
Saturday, hikers remotely triggered a large hard wind slab avalanche on an east facing slope at around 7700' near the Bear Lake Overlook. The avalanche was 3 to 4 feet deep and close to 200' wide. Report is HERE
It looks like a faily widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred late Saturday night and Sunday morning, with several small soft slab and loose avalanches of storm snow visible at low elevations in Logan Canyon yesterday, HERE. I could see several fresh long running naturals in Wood Camp and fresh slides were spotted by observers in the State Line Bowls and in the Wellsvilles during brief breaks in the clouds.
There were numerous human triggered avalanches and a few close calls this weekend in the Western Uinta's and in the Wasatch Range above Salt Lake City and the Ogden Valley. Find a list of all observations & avalanches from across Utah HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Since cold weather is in the forecast, it's likely that the powder will stay really good for a while, and it'll be worth waiting for a little while for it to stabilize in steep terrain.
  • Copious new snow has created potential for human triggered soft slab avalanches, especially in areas where the fresh snow is drifted onto slopes steeper than about 30°.
  • Loose avalanches entraining storm snow remain likely on very steep slopes at all elevations. Despite the cold temperatures, on sheltered sunny slopes wet (or moist) sluffs entraining lots of fresh snow will become likely as the powerful sun moistens the new snow surface. On sustained slopes these can pick up speed and volume pretty quickly. People should stay out from under your partners and other parties and avoid very steep terrain where you could be swept into trees, gullies or other terrain traps.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
People are likely trigger soft slabs of wind drifted storm snow up to a couple feet thick in drifted terrain. Sustained winds from the west enlarged cornices and built fresh wind slabs. Some of these probably formed on weak surface snow that was preserved by a couple inches of powder last week and could remain pretty touchy.
  • Avoid corniced slopes and stiffer drifts on steep slopes near ridges and in and around terrain features like under cliff bands, sub-ridges, mid-slope break-overs, and gully walls..
  • Even a small wind slab avalanche can have large consequences if you get swept into trees or other terrain traps.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There are areas where weak surface snow was buried and preserved by light powder last week. We're finding a new buried persistent weak layer consiting of sugary faceted snow, in some cases associated with a thin sun-crust. This is the culprit failing layer in several recent close calls with avalanches in the Wasatch Range and it appears to be present in the Bear River Range as well. An observer triggered a couple audible collapses yesterday on mid elevation south and west facing slopes, and hikers remotely triggered a 3-4 foot thick hard wind slab avalanche on Saturday.
  • This type of persistent weak layer usually doesn't remain unstable for very long, but people should be aware that it is active in some areas now.
Additional Information
General Announcements
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Logan and Ogden Ranger Districts HERE, and a close up of the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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