Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains
Issued by Toby Weed on
Friday morning, January 3, 2020
Friday morning, January 3, 2020
Heavy snowfall and strong westerly winds created dangerous avalanche conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger in the backcountry. Human triggered avalanches are likely today on drifted upper and mid elevation slopes, and possible at all elevations, even in normally sheltered terrain.
- Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. Use caution while route finding, and make conservative decisions.
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Moderate
Considerable
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Weather and Snow
It's 23°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel this morning, and there's about 3 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours, with 17 inches and 2.0" SWE from the storm. There is 54 inches of total snow, with 113% of average SWE for the date. It's 13°F on Logan Peak, and northwest winds are currently blowing around 20 mph.
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist on drifted upper and mid elevation slopes, and people are likely to trigger avalanches in the backcountry today. Natural avalanches of wind drifted new snow are possible in some areas.
Here's a short video from the saddle on Beaver Mt. Backside Tuesday..
It's still windy and a bit more snow is possible this morning in the mountains, but cloudy skies will gradually clear and the sun will come out this afternoon. Expect 8500' high temperatures around 29°F and west-northwest wind 17 to 20 mph. It will be partly cloudy tonight, with low temperatures are expected to be around 17°F and 8 to 10 mph west winds. It will be mostly cloudy on Saturday, with high temperatures around 32°F, 13 to 15 mph southwest wind, and a good chance of snow showers in the afternoon.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow are likely again today. Strong west winds dropped into terrain in the Bear River Range and blew all day during Tuesday's storm 30 to 40 mph with gusts in the 50s. Northwest winds continued yesterday and overnight, drifting tons of fresh snow on steep slopes and into avalanche starting zones. We remote triggered cornice fall, small wind slabs and 50'-long shooting cracks in drifted terrain on Beaver Mountain's Backside Tuesday afternoon. Observers in the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas yesterday found white out conditions due to extreme drifting and riming.
- Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow near ridge lines and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, scoops, gully walls, and sub-ridges.
- Wind slabs are often rounded and chalky looking, and they might sound hollow, like a drum.
- Soft fresh wind slabs can be quite sensitive, and are often remotely triggered. Hard wind slabs can be more devious, sometime allowing one to get out on them before releasing.
- Avoid forming ridge top cornices, which can break much further back than expected and start avalanches on slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches of new snow failing on a newly buried persistent weak layer are likely on steep slopes at upper and mid elevations and possible lower, and some natural avalanche activity is possible. The cold weather last week created sugary weak surface snow in many areas, and some slopes were plagued by feathery surface hoar. Some of today's avalanches might be triggered remotely, from a distance or below. Some slopes may stay unstable for a while.
Persistent weak layers consisting of feathery surface hoar and sugary near surface facets were buried by the New Years Storm on many slopes, and some of these may stay unstable for a while.
The sugary October persistent weak layer near the ground on northerly facing upper elevation slopes appears to be dormant for now, but it could be reactivated in some places by a new load of wind drifted snow. Dangerous hard slab avalanches might be triggered by smaller avalanches of wind drifted or new snow overrunning slopes with poor snow structure. It's always a good plan to avoid steep, thin, rocky terrain.
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This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
I will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.