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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Friday, January 19, 2024
There is CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger at all elevations. Dangerous conditions exist, and people are likely to trigger life-threatening avalanches failing on a widespread buried, persistent weak layer. There may be areas with lingering HIGH danger on drifted upper-elevation east-facing slopes.
Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and conservative decision-making are essential. People should continue to avoid and stay out from under drifted slopes steeper than 30°
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Weather and Snow
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist on drifted slopes steeper than 30° at all elevations. People are likely to trigger long-running, destructive, and life-threatening avalanches. Poor snow structure exists on most slopes, with a stiff layer of heavy, wind-drifted snow now overloading a widespread layer of very weak, sugary, or faceted snow from the December dry spell.
Winds from the west are blowing around 20 mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. At 9500' on Paris Peak, the wind is blowing 15 to 20 mph from the southwest, and it’s 19° F.
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 25° F and 86 inches of total snow. 14 inches of heavy new snow accumulated at the site in the last few days, with a whopping 3.2" SWE (Snow Water Equivalent).
Expect mostly cloudy and mild conditions in the mountains today, with 8500' high temperatures expected to be around 35° F and a 10 mph wind blowing from the west-southwest. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with low temperatures around 20° F and a light wind from the south. Snow is likely tomorrow, with 1 to 2 inches possible. It will be mostly cloudy with high temperatures around 34° F and 10 mph wind from the south-southwest at 8500'. Unsettled, cloudy weather will continue Sunday and through most of the coming week, with snow possible or likely every day, but accumulations should remain on the light side.
Recent Avalanches
Wednesday afternoon, a snowboarder remotely triggered a good-sized slab avalanche near the Backside pullout in Beaver Canyon. The avalanche on a southeast-facing slope at 6900' in elevation was 2 to 3 feet deep and around 100 feet wide. It highlights that the Backside is the backcountry, and unexpected avalanches could occur at low elevations, catching people off guard. (check out my video below)
Several very large natural avalanches were observed with brief clearing on Thursday; the most notable were in the Wellsville Range, but sizable natural slides were also visible in the Wood Camp and Steam Mill areas.
A HUGE natural avalanche was observed yesterday in Rattlesnake Canyon in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness. It is visible from Hwy 89/91 in Sardine. (Chris Benson, 1-18-24)
Check out local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today, human-triggered slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer could be large and life-threatening. Large, long-running, and destructive natural avalanches are likely today as heavy snowfall and drifting by winds from the west overloaded slopes plagued by widespread buried layers of weak, sugary snow or facets and feathery surface hoar that developed during the prolonged December dry spell.
  • Avalanches could be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse, from below!
  • Collapsing or whumpfs and shooting cracks indicate unstable snow.
  • Heavy storm snow and wind-drifted snow overloaded slopes with poor snow structure and large avalanches failing on the December persistent weak layer are likely.
  • Exposed slopes, where the wind drifted the heavy new snow, developed dangerous wind slabs. Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow on the lee side of prominent ridges and in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, gully walls, mid-slope rollovers, and cliff bands.
Additional Information
On Thursday, I looked at the remotely triggered avalanche in the backcountry low on Beaver Mt Backside.
Dangerous roof avalanches are likely due to the mild temperatures. Be sure to keep children and pets out from under snow-covered roofs.
Always follow safe travel protocols on or under slopes steeper than 30°.
  • Be sure everyone in your party has working avalanche rescue equipment, including a transceiver, probe, and shovel. Practice with this equipment regularly, and include and instruct new partners.
  • Cross avalanche paths and runout zones one person at a time, with the rest of the party watching from a safe place.
  • Reevaluate and be willing to change your plans if you encounter any signs of instability, like recent avalanches, audible collapses (whumpfs), or cracking in drifted snow.
General Announcements
-For all questions on forecasts, education, KBYG, events, online purchases, or fundraising: call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry: go HERE.
-Paige will update this forecast by 7:30 AM tomorrow.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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