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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Friday morning, January 12, 2024
Avalanches are very likely, and the danger is HIGH at all elevations in the backcountry. Heavy snowfall and strong winds overloaded a widespread buried weak layer, creating very dangerous avalanche conditions. Natural avalanches are occurring, and if people venture into avalanche terrain they are likely to trigger long-running, destructive, and life-threatening avalanches.
Blizzard conditions will likely cause the danger to rise to EXTREME today, especially in the Central and Northern Bear River Range.
People should avoid travel in avalanche terrain at all elevations and stay off of and out from under drifted slopes steeper than 30°.
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Avalanche Warning
Strong winds and heavy snowfall have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Avalanches failing on a widespread persistent weak layer buried under the new snow are likely. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30°.
Special Announcements
Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings...HERE
Weather and Snow
UDOT Hwy 89 Summit and Beaver Mountain webcams show blizzard conditions this morning, with ridiculously heavy snowfall and horizontally blowing snow. Strong and sustained mountain winds already found plenty of fresh powder to drift onto steep slopes and into avalanche-starting zones at all elevations. Stiffer slabs now overload a widespread layer of very weak, sugary, or faceted snow from the December dry spell. Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist on backcountry slopes steeper than 30°.
Overnight, winds blowing from the southwest sustained hourly average speeds well over 30 mph, with gusts of 63 mph at the CSI Logan Peak weather station at 9700'. On Paris Peak this morning, the wind is blowing around 30 mph from the southwest; it's 2° F, and the wind chill value is -24° F.
As or 1:00 this morning, the Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 9° F, 71" of total snow, with 10" of new snow overnight. About 26 inches of new snow accumulated at the site since Tuesday night with 2.4" SWE (snow water equivalent).
The National Weather Service has issued a Blizzard Warning for the northern part of the Logan Zone through 5:00 AM Saturday morning. There is a Winter Storm Warning in effect for the mountains of northern Utah through Sunday night.
Expect a foot or two to accumulate on mountain slopes today with strong and gusty west winds. Impactful stormy weather will last through the weekend, with potential for things to quiet down early next week.
Recent Avalanches
A natural avalanche hit and crossed both lanes of Highway 89 at the Dugway in Logan Canyon early this morning, and the road is currently closed. Poor visibility prevented views of most avalanche terrain yesterday, but several natural avalanches were observed at low elevations in Logan Canyon. An observer reported sizable natural and remotely triggered avalanches at upper elevations on east and southeast-facing slopes in Cottonwood Canyon yesterday.
Check out local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Large, long-running, and destructive natural avalanches are ongoing this morning! Layers of weak sugary snow or facets and feathery surface hoar developed during the prolonged December dry spell on and near the snow surface, and the snow in shallow areas became loose and sugary all the way to the ground. As new snow and drifting snow overload slopes plagued by the widespread persistent weak layer, avalanches are becoming increasingly likely. Today, natural and human-triggered slab avalanches will be large, destructive, and life-threatening.
  • Avalanches could be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse, from below!
  • Collapsing or whumpfs and shooting cracks indicate unstable snow.
Wind-drifted snow now overloads slopes with poor snow structure, and large avalanches of wind drifted snow failing on the December persistent weak layer are likely. Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow on the Lee side of prominent ridges and in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, gully walls, mid-slope rollovers, and cliff bands.
People should avoid being on and under drifted slopes at all elevations today.
As new snow stacks up it is overloading slopes plagued by persistent weak layers that are widespread and exist at all elevations across the zone. Natural soft slab and loose avalanches of new snow are very likely today on slopes steeper than 30°, even in lower-elevation terrain.
Natural avalanches are occurring, and people are very likely to trigger avalanches at all elevations in the backcountry, so be careful where you walk the dog or build a snowman, and avoid fishing beneath steep slopes with lots of new snow. In fact, people should avoid playing, walking, running, or biking on or under all steep slopes, even those in the foothills!
Additional Information
Always follow safe travel protocols on or under slopes steeper than 30°.
  • Be sure everyone in your party has working avalanche rescue equipment, including a transceiver, probe, and shovel. Practice with this equipment regularly, and include and instruct new partners.
  • Cross avalanche paths and runout zones one person at a time, with the rest of the party watching from a safe place.
  • Reevaluate and be willing to change your plans if you encounter any signs of instability, like recent avalanches, audible collapses (whumpfs), or cracking in drifted snow.
Two new weather stations are found in the Logan Zone this season. The Paris Peak Weather Station (available HERE) and the Card Canyon Weather Station (available HERE)
General Announcements
  • For all questions on forecasts, education, KBYG, events, online purchases, or fundraising: call 801-365-5522.
  • To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry: go HERE
  • Read Mark's blog about electromagnetic interference of avalanche transceivers HERE.
    We will update this forecast by 7:30 AM tomorrow.
    This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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