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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Thursday morning, January 11, 2024
Avalanches are likely, and the danger is HIGH in the backcountry. Heavy snowfall and strong winds overloaded a widespread buried weak layer, creating very dangerous conditions, especially on drifted slopes at upper and mid-elevations. Dangerous conditions also exist on many low-elevation slopes where natural avalanches are possible, and people are likely to trigger avalanches.
People should stay off of and out from under drifted slopes steeper than 30° and avoid travel in avalanche terrain at all elevations.
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Avalanche Warning
Strong winds and heavy snowfall have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Avalanches failing on a widespread persistent weak layer buried under the new snow are likely. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30°.
Special Announcements
Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings...HERE
Weather and Snow
Strong and sustained mountain winds found plenty of fresh powder to drift onto steep Lee slopes and into avalanche-starting zones. Stiffer slabs now overload a widespread layer of very weak, sugary, or faceted snow from the December dry spell. Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist on backcountry slopes steeper than 30°.
Yesterday, winds blowing from the southwest sustained hourly average speeds well over 30 mph, with gusts close to 70 mph at the CSI Logan Peak weather station at 9700'. Overnight, the wind diminished a bit and shifted from the northwest, and it is currently blowing from the west-northwest around 20 mph. On Paris Peak this morning, the wind is blowing around 10 mph from the west-southwest; it's 1° F, and the wind chill is -15°. The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 7° F, 61" of total snow, and 16 inches of new snow since Tuesday night with 1.6" SWE (snow water equivalent).
The National Weather Service has issued a Blizzard Warning for the northern part of the Logan Zone starting at 5:00 PM today and extending tomorrow and continuing till 5:00 AM Saturday morning. Expect a brief lull in the stormy conditions today, with heavy snow and winds increasing again in the mountains this afternoon and evening. Projected snowfall amounts tonight, tomorrow, and Saturday are off the charts, with a few feet likely to accumulate on upper-elevation slopes. Impactful stormy weather will last through the weekend, with potential for things to quiet down early next week.
Recent Avalanches
Poor visibility prevented views of most avalanche terrain yesterday, but several natural avalanches were observed at low elevations in Logan Canyon.
A small natural avalanche occurred yesterday afternoon above Hwy 89 near Temple Fork .
Check out local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Layers of weak sugary snow or facets and feathery surface hoar developed during the prolonged December dry spell on and near the snow surface, and the snow in shallow areas became loose and sugary all the way to the ground. As new snow and drifting snow overload slopes plagued by the widespread persistent weak layer avalanches are becoming increasingly likely. Slab avalanches could be large, destructive, and probably unsurvivable.
  • Avalanches could be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse, from below!
  • Collapsing or whumpfs and shooting cracks indicate unstable snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds increased in intensity Tuesday and have been sustained for the last 48 hours. Wind-drifted snow now overloads slopes with poor snow structure, and large avalanches of wind drifted snow failing on the December persistent weak layer are likely. Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow on the Lee side of prominent ridges and in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, gully walls, mid-slope rollovers, and cliff bands.
People should avoid being on and under drifted slopes at all elevations today.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As new snow stacks up it is overloading slopes plagued by persistent weak layers that are widespread and exist at all elevations across the zone. Natural soft slab and loose avalanches of new snow are possible today on slopes steeper than 30°, even in lower-elevation terrain.
People are likely to trigger avalanches at all elevations in the backcountry, so be careful where you walk the dog or build a snowman, and avoid fishing beneath steep slopes with lots of new snow.
Additional Information
Always follow safe travel protocols on or under slopes steeper than 30°.
  • Be sure everyone in your party has working avalanche rescue equipment, including a transceiver, probe, and shovel. Practice with this equipment regularly, and include and instruct new partners.
  • Cross avalanche paths and runout zones one person at a time, with the rest of the party watching from a safe place.
  • Reevaluate and be willing to change your plans if you encounter any signs of instability, like recent avalanches, audible collapses (whumpfs), or cracking in drifted snow.
Two new weather stations are found in the Logan Zone this season. The Paris Peak Weather Station (available HERE) and the Card Canyon Weather Station (available HERE)
General Announcements
  • For all questions on forecasts, education, KBYG, events, online purchases, or fundraising: call 801-365-5522.
  • To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry: go HERE
  • Read Mark's blog about electromagnetic interference of avalanche transceivers HERE.
    We will update this forecast by 7:30 AM tomorrow.
    This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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