Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Saturday, February 10, 2024
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist and human triggered avalanches are LIKELY. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. Avoid being on or under steep slopes, particularly those with a northwest, through north, through easterly aspect. In these areas, recent and wind drifted snow has overloaded buried weak layers in the snowpack, deeper and much more dangerous avalanches are likley in these areas.
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Weather and Snow
It's been a big week in the Abajo/Blue Mountains with more than 2' of snow containing 4.0"-5.0" of Snow Water Equivalent. This has been a tremendous load on the weak, underlying snowpack and very dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Backcountry travelers should avoid all avalanche terrain. This includes being on or underneath slopes steeper than 30 degrees. The greatest danger exists on steep, northerly aspects, where deep, unsurvivable, human triggered avalanches are likely. The only cure for this danger is time. We're going to need to let the snowpack adjust before we venture into avalanche terrain. This includes the North Creek drainage which is exceedingly avalanche prone due to its narrow nature, and with numerous slide paths threatening the road preventing safe passage. At least one avalanche covered it last weekend, and much more snow has fallen since then. This is a good place to avoid for the time being.
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.