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Observation: Mill Creek Ridgeline

Observation Date
1/2/2015
Observer Name
Toddeo
Region
Salt Lake » Mill Creek Ridgeline
Location Name or Route
Wilson/Alexanders
Weather
Sky
Clear
Wind Speed
Calm
Weather Comments
1st day this week it did not feel very cold in the shade.
Snow Characteristics
Snow Surface Conditions
Powder
Faceted Loose
Wind Crust
Melt-Freeze Crust
Snow Characteristics Comments

A bit of a crust on some sunny aspects, minor.

Major surface hoar formation on all aspects, I expect that the warm weather will break down some of the surface facets on south aspects. Shady aspects will continue to weaken.

Upper snow pack on northerly aspects is rapidly weakening and capped by surface hoar up to 5mm. Some areas of fresh wind crusts on ridgetops and in Alexander Basin, minor

Red Flags
Red Flags
Poor Snowpack Structure
Red Flags Comments
Poor snowpack structure is the red flag of the day, see attached profile. ECTP11 and ECTPV in basal facets in Alexander Basin. The supportable mid-pack crusts in this area may lead to a false sense of safety. Based on what I saw in the deep pack, I am no where ready to get on any steep northerly aspects that have not slid. Others are but it's a game of "Depth Hoar" roulette, we may have taken a few rounds out but the gun is still loaded. Of note: One ECTP 15, Q2 in the mid pack propagated and stepped down to the basal facets. The weakening surface snow coupled with surface hoar is a future red flag. No cracking or collapsing observed today.
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
New Snow
Problem #1 Comments

Hard call on the hazard. I would say moderate probability with a high consequence scenario.

Snow Profile
Aspect
Northwest
Elevation
8,900'
Slope Angle
30°
Comments

Photo of surface hoar on Wilson Peak.

It appears that some are blindly jumping into steeper north facing terrain. I am in agreement with folks like the UAC forecasters, Mark White and Fred that it is not time yet.

Today's Observed Danger Rating
Moderate
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Moderate