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Observation: Blind Hollow

Observation Date
12/27/2013
Observer Name
Nate H-S
Region
Logan » Logan River » Blind Hollow
Location Name or Route
Blind Hollow, Cottonwood Canyon, Tony Grove, Naomi Peak Wilderness
Weather
Sky
Clear
Wind Direction
Northwest
Wind Speed
Light
Weather Comments
Cold down in the shady draws but otherwise sunny and clear. The wind picked up as the day went on.
Snow Characteristics
Snow Surface Conditions
Faceted Loose
Melt-Freeze Crust
Rain-Rime Crust
Damp
Snow Characteristics Comments
Almost every snow condition imaginable. Some crusts are now supporting, but sheltered areas are breakable crusts under graupel on the rain-rime crust. Managed to collapse untraveled low-angle slopes at most aspects.
Red Flags
Red Flags
Recent Avalanches
Wind Loading
Collapsing
Rapid Warming
Poor Snowpack Structure
Red Flags Comments
Lots of natural avalanches from the Christmas cycle around Cottonwood Canyon.
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
New Snow
Trend
Same
Problem #1 Comments
Where the bed surface facets remain, there is still potential for large persistent slab avalanches.
Avalanche Problem #2
Problem
Wet Snow
Trend
Decreasing Danger
Problem #2 Comments
Rapid warming, especially near exposed rock bands, could cause small wet slides that step down into yet untriggered persistent slabs on NE/N/NW aspects. I hypothesize that this is how the additional 12/27 slide I saw occurred. As weather cools and clouds, this should be less of an issue.
Comments
Touring (12/27) through Blind Hollow up to the Naomi Peak area and out via Tony Grove, I observed numerous avalanches in the Cottonwood Canyon area of the Naomi Peak Wilderness. As Toby notes, almost all of these failed on the early season facets when wind and snow loaded them up during the Christmas cycle. Due to an early start, I missed the 12/26 observations. I toured out to the western ridge from Blind Hollow and saw the shock and awe and snapped some photos. I then took a run back to the yurt. When I toured back to the ridge it was considerably warmer (1200) and I saw what appeared to be another new avalanche that went below the rock band east of Mt. Elmer. When comparing this to Toby's 3rd and 4th pictures, it was in fact new yesterday. My images don't catch it super well, but I have attached them anyway.
Poor quality image, but the best of my lot. 12/27 avalanche is lookers left of the one in the center that Toby documented in his 3rd and 4th photos from Thursday.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Considerable
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Considerable