Observation: Aspen Grove

Observation Date
2/2/2025
Observer Name
Meisenheimer / Champion / Kolanko.
Region
Provo » Provo Canyon » North Fork Provo R. » Aspen Grove
Location Name or Route
Aspen Grove to North Timp to Sundance Ski Area
Weather
Sky
Overcast
Precipitation
Light Snowfall
Wind Speed
Moderate
Snow Characteristics
New Snow Depth
8"
New Snow Density
High
Snow Surface Conditions
Damp
Snow Characteristics Comments
Pick a word... Warm, wet, heavy, sticky, rain, water, glop, mank, slush, unsupportable, Velcro, Pacific Northwest, mashed potatoes, elephant snot, chunder, chowder, April.
Red Flags
Red Flags
Recent Avalanches
Heavy Snowfall
Wind Loading
Rapid Warming
Poor Snowpack Structure
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Wind Drifted Snow
Trend
Same
Problem #1 Comments
WDS: The most dangerous avalanche problem in the Provo mountains is where the wind has drifted a more dense slab over our old pre-existing snow surface that was weak and faceted. This layer was buried on the 31st. Outside of the wind, there are 6-10 inches of dense wet snow over weak faceted snow to the ground. Sundance Avalanche office did trigger a size two wind slab that failed on faceted snow in one of their upper starting zones (see pic 1,2 & 3). This problem will not disappear overnight, especially with more wind in the forecast.
PWL: The two persistent weak layers have not gone anywhere. The snow surface that was buried on January 31st is the biggest concern at the moment. However, it takes an area that is wind-loaded to make an avalanche. There is NOT enough weight at the moment for the depth hoar to avalanche unless there was a larger cornice or avalanches, that makes it step down.
So, it's hard to say if the biggest problem is a new PWL or WDS breaking down to the old faceted snow surface. In either case, avalanches can be remotely triggered and break over wide areas (if wind-loaded).
Avalanche Problem #2
Problem
Wet Snow
Problem #2 Comments
There are lots of wet-loose avalanches all across the low and mid-elevation terrain. Most of these sluffs would start in the dense new heavy snow and then gouge down into the bottomless facets, making decent-sized debris piles. No cracking or collapses were noted. We did not see anything larger than size 1. Everywhere we traveled (up to 7,600') was wet snow. My guess would be around 8,500' and above the snow would be dry. Sundance skied great. Just like a spring April day at 1 PM.
Video
The dividing line is the Tibble Fork Road south. South of the road, the Provo snowpack is a joke all the way to Sundance. Here, it's 100 cm (3 feet) of faceted snow. The snowpack might be a little deeper and stronger in the upper elevations, but it's impossible to work your way up into upper-elevation bowls at the moment. This area is the weakest and shallowest snow I've seen this season. Provo is not in. We will see what happens over the next month. But we need feet and feet of snow here. The photos below are basic coverage.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Considerable
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Considerable
Coordinates