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Observation: Mary Ellen Gulch

Observation Date
1/9/2022
Observer Name
Zimmerman-Wall/Allen/Porter/Chovan
Region
Provo » American Fork » Mary Ellen Gulch
Location Name or Route
Sinner's Pass/Mary Ellen Gulch
Red Flags
Red Flags
Recent Avalanches
Poor Snowpack Structure
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Decreasing Danger
Problem #1 Comments
Depth of Dec 9th PWL is 140-200cm deep. Unreactive in tests. Recent explosives triggered avalanches in north facing NTL and Alpine terrain is concerning and we are still considering this an active problem. This widespread in distribution, yet increasingly stubborn to trigger problem is deceptive. It's not time to light up the town just yet, but time is on our side.
Avalanche Problem #2
Problem
Wet Snow
Trend
Decreasing Danger
Problem #2 Comments
Specific to terrain features with rock outcroppings. Initial warming has done its duty. May not see much more with forecasted temps and diurnal cycle.
Snow Profile
Aspect
Northeast
Elevation
9,200'
Comments
Stunner of a day. Calm wind, clear skies, temps near freezing. Felt much colder in the shade. Net LW radiation loss was apparent. Faceting occurring in low density new snow from last 48 hours on north facing. South facing slopes were damp and a thin crust was noted on these slopes that seems to have developed in the clear period 1/7AM to 1/7PM and has 1-4" of snow from 1/7 PM-1/8 AM. Turning conditions were mostly excellent, but you could easily find the bottom, which was a bit firmer due to the prior more maritime storm (1/5-1/6) snow settling well.
Extensive spatial sampling performed by snowmobiles and timber sleds in terrain observed on all aspects between 8,500-10,000'. No avalanches noted. Powderbird slope testing in upper Mary Ellen produced no results and large open/planar northerly facing slopes were skied without incident
Small to medium sized Wet Loose natural avalanches were noted on steep due south within rock bands.
Photo 1. Upper Mary Ellen Gulch- Old crown (7+ days) below cliff bands near ridge. Notice the shot hole from today's slope testing mission performed by Powderbird with no result.
Photo 2. Pagan Basin where profile was performed. Quite filled in and many rock features and roll overs have disappeared. Many timbersled tracks on slope in areas where you would think you'd trigger a slide, but with no activity.
Photo 3. Wet Loose avalanche in Sugar cliffs 9800' South Facing.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Considerable
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Moderate
Coordinates