Observation: Big Cottonwood Canyon

Observation Date
1/9/2022
Observer Name
Gagne/Duvernay/Johnston/Kardon
Region
Salt Lake » Big Cottonwood Canyon
Location Name or Route
10,420' / Guardsman / PC Ridgeline
Weather
Sky
Clear
Wind Direction
Northwest
Wind Speed
Light
Weather Comments
W/NW winds along exposed summits and ridges but not moving any snow.
Snow Characteristics
Snow Surface Conditions
Faceted Loose
Damp
Snow Characteristics Comments
Friday night/Saturday morning 5-10 cms of storm snow weakened quite a bit and already turning to facets at the surface. Solar aspects were damp by mid-day and likely steeper southerly faces will be crusted for Monday.
The snow surface turning to near-surface facets (NSF) This *may* become our next weak layer ......
Red Flags
Red Flags
Poor Snowpack Structure
Red Flags Comments
Poor snowpack structure is still evident, but we are definitely trending in the right direction.
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Decreasing Danger
Problem #1 Comments
Field work the past two days involved using my probe quite a bit to measure snow depths where facets are present. (W/N/E aspects > ~8,500') In almost every place I looked today (and Mineral Fork on Saturday) the slab on top of the facets is 1-2m thick and goes from 4F down to 1F to Pencil hard, indicating a very strong slab on top of the faceted layer.
We did get an ECTP30 today on an East aspect at 9,600', failing down 120 cms on the facets, and this indicates that if you were able to get a collapse and fracture in the faceted layer, the avalanche could propagate very widely and deep. On the slope we were testing the fracture would have been 120 cms / 4' deep.
But the facets are gaining strength where I have been looking the past two days, moving from what had been very dry/weak F-hardness towards 4F hardness. They are also becoming damp as the temperature gradient that caused the faceting is no longer present.
With such a strong slab on top and the facets gaining strength and adjusting to the load on top, we are probably very close to this PWL problem becoming dormant. (Dormancy means the problem still exists (didn't go away) and may become reactive once again with a load of new snow or wind-blown snow on top.)
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Considerable
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Moderate