Observation: Little Water

Observation Date
12/27/2021
Observer Name
Gagne/Heilweil
Region
Salt Lake » Mill Creek Canyon » Little Water
Location Name or Route
Little Water Peak
Weather
Sky
Overcast
Precipitation
Light Snowfall
Wind Direction
West
Wind Speed
Moderate
Weather Comments
Sustained moderate to strong gusts from the west/southwest along the exposed ridges.
Snow Characteristics
Snow Surface Conditions
Powder
Wind Crust
Snow Characteristics Comments
Fresh wind drifts were unreactive to ski cuts, but biggest concern is the west/southwest winds continue to load the leeward east/northeast aspects where the persistent weak layer is present.
Red Flags
Red Flags
Recent Avalanches
Wind Loading
Cracking
Collapsing
Poor Snowpack Structure
Red Flags Comments
On a ridge with a dense slab of recent storm and wind-drifted snow we got a huge collapse with several cracks shooting out in all directions. The slope wasn't steep enough to slide and I was surprised it did not propagate and remotely trigger a much larger avalanche on an adjacent northerly-facing slope. 
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Increasing Danger
Problem #1 Comments
We got several collapses today and on at least two separate slopes cracking. One extended column test was ECTP22 failing down 60 cms on the layer of faceted snow.
On a ridge with a dense slab of recent storm and wind-drifted snow we got a huge collapse with several cracks shooting out in all directions. The slope wasn't steep enough to slide and I was surprised it did not propaage and remotely trigger a much larger avalanche on an adjacent northerly-facing slope.
The trend for this problem is increasing with more snow and wind forecast.
Comments
On one slope where I got long, visible crack in the snow surface, I dug down and it was apparent how the crack extended all the way from the surface to the layer of faceted snow down 60 cms.
Video
Persistent west/southwest winds are eroding windward aspects and drifting snow onto leeward aspects where the PWL is present.
As we continue to overload the northwest through east aspects with more snow and wind-drifted snow we are just adding more stress to the buried PWL. Conditions are not as reactive as they were 7-10 days ago but it is tricky as we are getting fewer signs of instability (ie fewer remotely-triggered avalanches, fewer collapses and cracking) but conditions are growing more dangerous. Extended column tests the past few days are now getting scores into the 20's, whereas 3-5 days ago they were in the single digits or teens. But almost all extended column tests are getting full propagation on the weak facets. This indicates to me that as the slab on top grows stronger it is getting harder to trigger an avalanche, but if you do trigger one, it will be very deep (several feet) and propagate very wide (perhaps hundreds of feet). With this poor snowpack structure you simply have to stay off of slopes approaching 30 degrees or steeper on slopes where the PWL is present.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
High
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
High