The Persistent weak layer (PWL) problem has been lingering over us for quite some time, and won't be going anywhere shortly. With another storm approaching, this will add additional stress to the PWL. With clear cold nights, it is no surprise that in the field we noticed the surface snow beginning to weaken, and we saw both near-surface facets on ridgetops and surface hoar in protected valleys and terrain features. Since the snow surface has begun to weak, I expect the new snow to bond poorly to the old snow. As the new snow begins to come in, I would expect to see fast and far running sluffs and soft slab avalanches on the new snow old snow interface, especially during periods of high PI rates. Once water and snow totals begin to stack up, we may hit the tipping point in which the snowpack becomes unglued, and we see new snow and wind drifted snow avalanches stepping down more deeply into the weak faceted snow. Moving into this next storm system the avalanche danger will be on the rise.

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As mentioned in previous forecasts, the best way to manage a PWL problem is avoidance. There is still fun riding on slopes less than 30 degrees!