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Observation: Horse Creek

Observation Date
3/9/2025
Observer Name
Garcia
Region
Moab » Horse Creek
Location Name or Route
Horse Creek and Chair 11 Moraines
Weather
Sky
Clear
Wind Speed
Calm
Weather Comments
Picture perfect day in the mountains. No wind and clear skies. Very warm, 43 degrees at 10,000'.
Snow Characteristics
Snow Surface Conditions
Powder
Dense Loose
Damp
Snow Characteristics Comments
Traveled across a variety of aspects. Cold dry powder is still found on northerlies. Low angle and sheltered northerlies offer the best turning conditions. South, southwest, and west had a crust in the morning and were wet in the afternoon. They will be crusted over tomorrow morning.
Red Flags
Red Flags
Recent Avalanches
Rapid Warming
Poor Snowpack Structure
Red Flags Comments
I checked out the recent natural avalanche in Horse Creek. I was able to get on the bed surface and confirm that this avalanche ripped to the ground taking out the entire season's snowpack. Poor snowpack structure was observed on a west aspect at 11,170'.
Avalanche Problem #1
Problem
Persistent Weak Layer
Trend
Same
Problem #1 Comments
The PWL is alive and active on polar aspects. I will continue to avoid avalanche terrain on the shady side of the compass. I investigated west facing slopes today to see if this is a viable strategy to avoid the PWL problem, but I found poor snowpack structure at 11,170' with multiple weak layers of concern. ECTP 22 on the 2/11 weak layer down 72 cm. I went for a second test to duplicate this result and got ECTPV (failed on isolation) on the depth hoar near the bottom of the pack. A third extended column test also resulted in ECTPV on the depth hoar. Recent stability tests from W-N-E have been getting results on the deeply buried facets/depth hoar at the bottom of the pack. The recent avalanche in Horse Creek also took out the entire season's snow pack. It's a bad set up, and we have to continue to excercise patience with our current PWL problem.
Some west facing slopes are melted out and have a very shallow snowpack. There is not an avalanche problem on these slopes. But if you get on a west face with a real snowpack, mulitple weak layers of facets exist beneath a slab. The only way to know is to probe for depth, and dig down to find the weak layers.
Today's Observed Danger Rating
Considerable
Tomorrows Estimated Danger Rating
Considerable
Coordinates