If you have been following the forecast you know we have been tracking the weak layer that was buried on 12/25. This layer is found about a foot beneath the surface. Today we toured up to about 11,200' and stayed primarily on Westerly aspects. We did not observe a slab on top of the 12/25 weak layer, and you can see the test scores in the pit profile below (CTN, ECTN 19). One thing that should get your attention is the entire snowpack on this slope is weak and faceted top to bottom. This profile has me concerned for future loading events.

We have been paying a lot of attention to the 12/25 layer because it is still sensitive, but we shouldn't forget about the weak facets at the base of the pack. Basal facets are widespread throughout the range on a variety of aspects. The incremental loading since Christmas hasn't been enough to wake them up. My concern is that slopes in the alpine that have been previously drifted have additional weight stressing these layers, and they are sitting close to their breaking point. The weight of a skier or rider in just the right place (think rocky, convex terrain, or a thin part of the slab) can be enough to trigger a full depth avalanche. I'm avoiding big lines in alpine terrain to steer clear of this problem. Check out the results of our PST in the profile. The interpretation is that when triggered, the basal facets are capable of propagating a failure across a slope and producing deep and dangerous avalanches.