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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Sunday morning, December 22, 2024
Heightened avalanche conditions persist on upper and mid-elevation slopes facing northwest through east. The danger is MODERATE, and people could trigger dangerous slab avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer buried one to two feet deep. Avalanches could be triggered remotely (from a distance) or from below the slope.
Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, and continue to avoid drifted upper-elevation slopes steeper than 30°
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Now is a great time to dial in your safety gear including putting fresh new batteries in your beacons! Local shops across the state will be handing out free Batteries for Beacons now until February 1, 2025. All you need to do is fill out a quick survey and grab the AAA or AA batteries you need to keep your beacon fresh this season. Find participating shops and more info HERE.
Weather and Snow
The slab layer created by two storms last week is one to two feet thick (possibly thicker in exposed, wind-loaded terrain), and it caps weak, sugary, faceted snow from November. Last week, we observed numerous signs of instability, including natural and remotely triggered avalanches, long-running shooting cracks, and widespread audible collapses or whumpfs (***see video below.) As the snowpack gradually adjusts to the recent loading, these "Red Flags" will become less frequent or nonexistent. Even so, people could still trigger dangerous avalanches. This setup is tricky because remotely triggered avalanches remain possible and avalanches might be triggered from flat terrain below avalanche paths, or the avalanche may not release until you are out in the middle of the slab or find a thin spot on it. The easiest way to avoid the problem is to stay off and out from under slopes steeper than about 30°. Be vigilant, listen, and watch for collapsing, a sure sign of instability.
Riding conditions are pretty good in shaded sheltered, north-facing terrain where the snow remains soft and somewhat supportable. The snow is still generally quite shallow, and it's easy to sink through the sugary snow to the shallowly buried, A-arm-bending rocks underneath. Outside those areas, the snow is wind-buffed, crusty, or damp. Many south-facing slopes are still too thin for on-snow travel.
-The Tony Grove Snotel, at 8400 feet in elevation, reports 33° F, with 31 inches of total snow.
-Winds on Logan Peak are blowing from the west at 25 to 30 mph with overnight gusts up to 45 mph, and it's 28° F this morning.
-It's 28° F at Card Canyon, with 28 inches of total snow.
-On Paris Peak at 9500 feet, it is 27° F with west winds blowing 15 to 20 mph.
Snow is likely today, with 1 to 2 inches of accumulation possible up high. Expect high temperatures at 8500' around 33° F, with 14 to 17 mph winds blowing from the west-northwest. Another 1 or 2 inches of snow could accumulate tonight, and temperatures will drop to around 28° F. Tomorrow, it will snow. 3 to 5 inches is expected to accumulate on mountain slopes, with 10 to 15 mph winds from the west.
Snow is likely on Christmas Eve, with another 3 to 5 inches possible. Light snowfall is expected on Christmas Day, heavier snowfall is anticipated on Thursday, and snow is expected to continue next weekend...
For more information, visit the UAC weather page here: Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
For Logan-specific weather, go here: Logan Mountain Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
Recent Avalanches
-On Tuesday, there were some fairly large natural avalanches, including one on the east face of Naomi Pk and a couple on the Cottonwood Sisters in the Mt Naomi Wilderness.
-On Wednesday morning, sledders remotely triggered a small avalanche in the cliffs on the southwest corner of Tony Grove Lake.
-You can read all recent local observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human-triggered avalanches remain possible at upper and mid-elevations. Avalanches of stiff, previously drifted snow could be one to three feet deep, failing on a persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow. Avalanches failing on the widespread persistent weak layer are possible on slopes steeper than 30° even in sheltered terrain. Very weak, sugary, faceted snow exists on almost all northerly-facing slopes at upper and mid-elevations. Low elevation and southerly slopes were mostly bare of snow or had only shallow coverage before this past week's storms.
  • Recent avalanches, shooting cracks, and collapsing (whumpfs) are signs of unstable snow. These are "Red Flags," and you should reevaluate your plans if you encounter them in the backcountry.
  • Avalanches today could be triggered remotely (from a distance) or from below.
  • A ride in even a small avalanche is especially dangerous in the early season due to shallowly buried rocks, stumps, and downed trees.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches of wind-drifted snow are possible. Today, winds from the west will drift snow into lee slope deposition areas off the major ridges. Drifting will form shallow wind slabs in exposed terrain and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, sub-ridges, gullies, and scoops. In some cases, the new wind slabs will overload slopes that may be hanging in the balance, and larger avalanches stepping down to the widespread persistent weak layer are possible.
As usual, people should avoid travel in drifted terrain steeper than 30°
Additional Information
We triggered dozens of whumpfs following the summer trail towards Naomi Peak. Poor snow structure is now widespread in the Logan Zone, with a slab sitting atop very weak, faceted snow. Creating collapses is both fun and unnerving.
A natural avalanche on the east face of Naomi Peak, most likely occurred on Tuesday, 12-17-24.
General Announcements
-National Forest Winter Recreation Travel Maps show where it's open to ride: UWCNF Logan, Ogden LRD Tony Grove, Franklin Basin CTNF Montpelier
-Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings...HERE.
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
-Remember that the Tony Grove Road is not maintained for winter driving. Treacherous snow-covered and icy conditions will be encountered.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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