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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Dave Kelly
Issued by Dave Kelly on
Wednesday morning, March 6, 2024
Today, there is a MODERATE avalanche danger on mid and upper elevation steep terrain where it will be possible to trigger 1-2' thick soft and hard slabs of wind drifted snow. The avalanche danger is LOW in lower elevation terrain.
Watch for and avoid sluffing of the newest snow in steep terrain at all elevations on the shady side of the compass, and avoid wet snow with afternoon warming at lower elevations.
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Weather and Snow
This morning, under overcast skies trailhead temperatures are in the low 30's °F and the 8,000' temperatures are in the mid-20's °F. Winds continue to blow from a southwesterly direction in the teens to the mid 20's MPH. Overnight the max gust at 8,250' was 38 MPH from the south-southwest. There was a trace of new snow overnight.
Today, look for overcast skies with winds blowing from a westerly direction 15 gusting to 20 MPH at the 9,000' ridgelines and 25 gusting to 35 MPH at the 11,000' ridgelines and decreasing through the day. Temperatures should be 32-38°F with light snow accumulations of a trace to an inch throughout the day. The freezing level will be between 6500'-7,500'.
Today should be the warmest day of the week as light snow continues through Thursday evening. The travel has remained soft on northerly facing terrain out of the wind zone. Lower elevations and south through west facing slopes at mid elevations took some heat yesterday and you may find a melt-freeze crust on these aspects.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday we had reports of sensitive slabs of wind-drifted snow along ridgetops, and wet loose roller balls at lower elevations below 7,500' Check out all observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The ongoing strong winds that have and continue to blow have transported snow and, in many places stripped some windward locations back to rocks and brush. All of this blowing snow had to go somewhere and there are large drifts of snow on the leeward aspect of ridgelines and terrain features. The hardness of these wind drifts seemed to increase with elevation, which means they are more likely to allow you to get further onto the slope before breaking above you.
Cornices are a sign of fresh wind-loading and there were observations of sensitive and large cornices over the last few days.
Yesterday in the Provo River Drainage Nikki and I found that we were able to trigger these sensitive wind-drifts from further back on ridgetops and that they were failing on a layer of weak snow underlying the newest wind drifts (see video below).
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today's warming temperatures mean the lowest elevation terrain will warm up quickly. Stay off of any slopes where you see wet loose rollerballs or start to sink down into the surface snow on steeper terrain. Your best bet is to head to higher elevation terrain if you notice warming at the lowest elevation. Steep chutes and rocky gully features are places where you may see avalanches start as dry loose and very quickly turn into wet snow avalanches.
Additional Information
The Provo area mountains have widely variable snow and avalanche conditions. The American Fork area and the Wasatch Back had some of the weakest and thinnest snow of northern Utah up until a couple weeks ago and seem very different than other areas. Along the upper reaches of the Cascade ridgeline and Timpanogos, natural avalanches have run and repeated over and over on weak faceted snow from early season and/or early December (see photo example - below from two weeks ago). These areas have been subjected to significant wind loading and over 1" of snow water equivalent over the last couple of days and avalanches may step into this older and deeper layering. Extra caution is recommended in steep alpine terrain in the Provo Area Mountains.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.