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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, March 1, 2024
You may still be able to trigger an isolated slab of wind drifted snow on slopes facing W-N-E-SE. Wind slabs form on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and sub-ridges. They are often smooth or rounded in appearance and they may sound or feel hollow underneath.
Although increasingly unlikely, human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer remain possible on steep slopes that face W-N-E-SE. The danger is most prominent on steep, northerly aspects. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche in thin snowpack areas. You can reduce your risk by avoiding steep, rocky areas and slopes with complex terrain features
Low
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Considerable
High
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Weather and Snow
Weather
SW winds have cranked up ahead of a powerful storm system currently impacting the West Coast. We may see a few thin clouds pushing into the area today but otherwise, expect sunny, warm, and windy conditions lasting into tomorrow when the wind really starts to get after it. Snowfall should begin Saturday night with points north favored. I'm fearing a repeat of last week's storm with a lort of huff and puff and not much fluff but keep your fingers crossed. Unsettled weather continues through next week.
General Conditons
Warm temperatures have likely stabilized most of the recently formed slabs of wind drifted snow, but you may still be able to find some lurking around out there. Look for deposits of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and sub-ridges. They are often smooth or rounded in appearance and they may sound or feel hollow underneath. The likelihood of triggering an avalanche on a deeply buried PWL continues to decrease, but it is still possible. We are now in a low likelihood, high consequence scenario. If you are stepping out into avalanche terrain, evaluate each slope on an individual basis. Aim to ride in areas with a deep snowpack. Avoid steep, rocky terrain, thinner areas along slope margins, and steep, blind rollovers or convexities. These are all likely trigger points.
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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