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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Tuesday morning, January 30, 2024
The overall avalanche danger is MODERATE on the Manti Skyline.
DANGEROUS AVALANCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE, just the chances are becoming less likely to trigger one.
The most likely places are on very steep slopes that face west, north and east in the mid and upper elevations.
There's a minor threat of some heat-related avalanches on the sunny slopes.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Temperatures got up to around 40˚F on Monday. Overnight they stayed mild along the ridges and peaks with readings in the upper 20s. It's colder down in the canyon bottoms with readings in the teens. Wind has been light from the southwest and is almost completely calm this morning. Riding conditions remain ok on the north half of the compass. You'll find melt freeze crusts on the sunny aspects and lower elevations.
Mountain Weather: Today will be another day of sunshine and warm temperatures getting into the upper 30s. Wind will be light from the south. Wednesday looks very similar, perhaps just slightly cooler. Clouds move in Thursday ahead of a storm system that will bring some snow to our area. As of this morning, very rough estimates are 4 to 8 inches of new snow by Saturday. Another storm looks like it will move through early next week.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Dangerous avalanches can still be triggered by people. The chances for triggering one is becoming less likely but they still remain dangerous if you do trigger one. Low probability, high consequences.
Even though the likelihood of triggering an avalanche is becoming less, you still won't see me in steep terrain yet. The snow at the base of the snowpack remains very weak. Once I see that the weak snow has gained some strength, then I'll entertain steeper terrain. Until then, it's still a game of Russian Roulette.
Additional Information
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INSTAGRAM: SKYLINE_AVALANCHE
FACEBOOK: SKYLINE AVALANCHE
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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